Who will be out after the play-ins?
For some teams, early exit will follow long wait to return
Hockey is usually a game of copycats. But who will want to copy this strange season. What truly will we learn when this five-round Stanley Cup tournament is over?
Will coaching changes have made a difference?
Will the big moves at the trade deadline have made a difference?
Will the time off — nearly five months between meaningful games — mean that teams with the best depth didn’t need to use it?
Did the lack of fans take the pressure of teams that can’t take the heat?
Did the lack of travel help teams that typically get worn down by it?
There’s almost no way to measure what works and what doesn’t and what ought to be duplicated as a road map to success, since it’s quite likely we’ll never see this kind of championship tournament again. At least we hope so.
Still, there will be winners and losers. And here’s my best guess as to will win and why, with some fun facts along the way. Let’s start with one.
Fun fact: Game 1 could be crucial. The NHL hasn't contested a best-of-five series since 1986. In the 56 best-of-five series contested in the1980s, the team that won Game1went on to win the series 49 times (87.5 per cent).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
á Pittsburgh (40-23-6) vs. Montreal (31-31-9)
The Penguins seem particularly determined, an aging core that is getting ready for one last hurrah. Pittsburgh added Patrick Marleau, Jason Zucker and Conor Sheary, and has unheralded top goaltending in Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray.
Fun fact: Sidney Crosby has a career points-per-game rate of 1.13 during the Stanley Cup playoffs, tied for eighth in NHL history (min. 50 GP)
The Canadiens’ young group is impressive, but just too inexperienced, and will be playing big roles. They were sellers at the deadline. They probably wish they had Nate Thompson, Marcus Scandella and Ilya Kovalchuk right about now. As good as Carey Price can be, he’s not enough to match Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Fun fact: Price has 25 career wins in the Stanley Cup playoffs, sixth in franchise history.
Pick: Penguins in four games.
á Carolina (38-25-5) vs. N.Y. Rangers (37-28-5)
The Hurricanes might have the best defence in the East, led by Jaccob Slavin and Dougie Hamilton. They also have some slick forwards, like Sebastian Aho.
They might be the team missing the fans the most, without their fan-friendly Surge.
Goaltending (Petr Mrazek or James Reimer) is a big question mark. Sorry, two big questions marks.
Fun fact: Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour captained the Hurricanes to their first Stanley Cup in 2006.
The Rangers are a happy-tobe-here team. They were out of the top eight and traded like it at the deadline.
They have the youngest team in the tournament, at 26.2 years of age. But with Hart Trophy nominee Artemi Panarin and goaltender Igor Shesterkin (102-0, 2.52 GAA and .932 save percentage), the series will be even.
Fun Fact: The Rangers beat Carolina in all four games this season. Pick: Hurricanes in five.
á N.Y. Islanders (35-23-10) vs. Florida (35-26-8)
New York is one of two teams in this series that believe its time has come. Both coach Barry Trotz and GM Lou Lamoriello have Stanley Cups on their resumés. Leading scorer Mathew Barzal is coming into his prime. Johnny Boychuk is an underrated defenceman. Semyon Varlamov offers solid goaltending. And Lamoriello added sniper Jean-Gabriel Pageau. The Islanders are committed to Trotz’s defensive systems.
Fun fact: New York’s triumph over Florida in 2016 was its first series win since1993. They have one series victory since.
Florida is the other team in this series that thinks its time has come, though the Panthers haven’t been to the playoffs since losing to the Islanders in 2016. Aleksander Barkov no longer flies under any radar. Jonathan Huberdeau can dominate a shift. Brian Boyle has playoff grit. If he’s on, G Sergei Bobrovsky can steal the series.
Fun fact: Joel Quenneville and Trotz both served as assistant coaches for Team Canada at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.
Pick: Islanders in five.
Toronto (36-25-9) vs. Columbus (33-22-15)
The Leafs are all about scoring: Auston Matthews has10 career playoff goals (20 games), third-most among Leafs before age 23, behind Ted Kennedy (20 in 38 games) and Wendel Clark (11 in 23 games). Mitch Marner leads the Leafs with 17 post-season points in 20 games since 2017. William Nylander ranked had 31 goals in 2019-20 (68 games), an increase of 24 from 2018-19.
Fun fact: Frederik Andersen is 8-11 as a Leaf in 20 Stanley Cup playoff appearances.
The Blue Jackets swept the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Lightning in the first round last year. Nineteen of the 24 players who dressed in at least one game with Columbus during the 2019 playoffs remain with the team. Cam Atkinson has 18 career playoff points in 27 games, tied with former teammate Artemi Panarin for the most in franchise history. Atkinson, Boone Jenner, Brandon
Dubinsky and David Savard have appeared in all 27 postseason games contested by the Blue Jackets since 2014.
Fun fact: Sheldon’s Keefe first NHL coach was John Tortorella. Pick: Maple Leafs in four.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Edmonton (37-25-9) vs. Chicago (32-30-8)
The Oilers are all about Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, perhaps the best1-2 punch at centre in the NHL. Both are driven and McDavid can carry the team. The defence was rounding into form. The goaltending is an issue. Losing in the first round while everybody else carries on in your building would be a very Oilers-y thing to do.
Fun fact: Draisaitl (2019-20) and McDavid (2016-17 and 201718) have combined to win the Art Ross Trophy in three of the last four seasons. The Blackhawks are the lowest of the low, the 24th best among the 24 in. But of the “Extra Eight” they might be the one to fear the most, with winning Cups in the DNA of leaders like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith. There’s enough youth with Alex DeBrincat and Dominik Kubalik to keep up.
Fun fact: Players on the Chicago roster have a combined 20 Stanley Cup rings; only the Penguins (22) and Blues (21) have more among resuming teams. Pick: Blackhawks in five.
Nashville (35-26-8) vs. Arizona (33-29-8)
The Predators are in danger of becoming the San Jose Sharks, perennial contenders that never quite get there. They have all the bodies, all the talent, none of the Stanley Cups. Filip Forsberg is Nashville’s all-time leader in playoff goals (23) and points (44), while Ryan Ellis owns the most post-season assists (25). Juuse Saros will start a playoff game over Pekka Rinne. How 2020 is that?
Fun fact: Five current Nashville players have dressed in all 61post-season games contested by the franchise since 2015: Mattias Ekholm, Ellis, Forsberg, Roman Josi and Rinne.
The Coyotes — a.k.a. Team Disarray — have a decent chance here. Taylor Hall is playing in just the second playoffs of his career, but playing for a UFA contract. Phil Kessel had a terrible year but tends to rise to the occasion in the post-season (77 playoff points in 87 games). Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Niklas Hjalmarsson form the core of the blue line. Darcy Kuemper has built a solid resumé in net.
Fun fact: The Coyotes are 4-2 all-time in neutral-site games. Pick: Coyotes in five.
Vancouver (36-27-6) vs. Minnesota (35-27-7)
In some ways, the Canucks are the Western Conference version of the Maple Leafs, led by youth. The team hasn’t made the post-season since 2015, so this will be the first time in the playoffs for Elias Petterson, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser. They’re not facing a heavyweight team, either, so the lack of post-season experience won’t be that great. Tyler Toffoli (10 points in 10 games) was an instant trade-deadline delight.
Fun fact: The Canucks have been to the Stanley Cup final three times.
The Wild scare precisely no one as a playoff team, having not won a round since 2014. They were sellers at the deadline. But they have playoff experience, with Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, Ryan Suter and Erik Staal. Maybe the pause helped old bones.
Fun fact: Koivu is one of six players in NHL history to dress in at least 75 per cent of his franchise’s all-time playoff games (minimum: 50 playoff games). Koivu has played in 55. Pick: Canucks in four.
Calgary (36-27-7) vs. Winnipeg (37-28-6)
The Flames are one of two underperforming playoff teams in this series. Calgary has won one playoff series since it reached Game 7 of the 2004 Stanley Cup final. They were ousted quickly in the first round last year. They boast a lineup capable of winning it all, with Matthew Tkachuk here to take on anyone who says otherwise.
Fun fact: Sean Monahan is one of four Flames in franchise history to record seven consecutive 20-goal seasons.
The Jets seem never to have recovered after losing to an expansion team in the 2018 Western Conference final. Patrik Laine hasn’t seemed as dangerous. But the core, with Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Vezina-worth goalie Connor Hellebuyck, is in its prime.
Fun fact: The good news for Rogers, Sportsnet and “Hockey Night in Canada” is that they are guaranteed a second Canadian team will play in the second round. Pick: Jets in five.