Inside the numbers: Game 5 has the makings of a thriller

Dubois: game-changer

The Maple Leafs rebounded to beat the Blue Jackets after a miraculous four minutes in Friday night’s Game 4 of their Stanley Cup qualifying series. Now, they have to win again Sunday night to advance — ideally, for themselves and their fan base, without having to overcome another three-goal deficit.

With the season on the line and the team playing inconsistent hockey, here’s a look at some of the trends in this series:

OFFENCE

The Leafs hold an impressive edge in offensive zone puck possession, leading to a 156-137 advantage in shots overall and 76-61 from the slot. They trail, though, in two areas that are usually strengths: rush chances (43-39 in favour of Columbus) and rush goals (4-3 Blue Jackets). That’s the result of too many turnovers all over the ice, and dangerous passing through the middle in particular. The Blue Jackets deserve credit for hustling to match the Leafs’ speed, but they have also played out of character as one of the top cycling teams in the NHL. The Leafs have produced more chances (51-39) and goals (3-1) off the cycle, after a regular season in which they allowed the most goals in that area. There is also this to consider: The Leafs have improved dramatically throughout the series in creating quality scoring chances. They have, however, only scored the first goal once through four games.

DEFENCE

The Blue Jackets have not been as thorough as advertised defensively, despite a shutout win in Game 1. On the one hand, no playoff team makes better use of the blocked shot. Columbus has blocked just over 30 per cent of Toronto’s shots, compared to 24 per cent (still higher than expected) by the Leafs. However, the Blue Jackets have made life tougher on their goalies by allowing 41 high-danger shots against, while the Leafs have allowed 19. And perhaps the biggest concern for John Tortorella’s coaching staff heading into Game 5 should be the Columbus turnover rate: 17.9 per cent, the highest of any playoff team. Toronto is next, however, at 15.9 per cent.

GOALTENDING

The Leafs’ Frederik Andersen and the Blue Jackets tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins have been relatively even in terms of overall save percentage and on shots from the slot. Andersen, though, tails off dramatically on high-danger save chances: .789, with the Columbus duo sitting at a combined .902. Along with the offence of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Korpisalo and Merzlikins have given Columbus an edge. The Blue Jackets netminders have combined for 6.58 goals saved above average — the best figure among playoff teams and well above Andersen’s 3.10 mark. The stat attempts to measure goals allowed relative to expected goals against, based on the number of high-danger chances for each team. Both clubs have four goals from high-danger areas — a category where the Leafs would normally excel.

DIFFERENCE MAKERS

Leafs captain John Tavares leads all playoff performers with 12 inner-slot shots.

Dubois tops the Blue Jackets in several key statistical categories: 11 shots, three goals, five rush chances (two resulting in goals), 13 slot passes and 2:30 of puck possession in the offensive zone.