Vlad’s struggles no mystery to Jays
The Blue Jays never had a prospect like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before. Sure, they had plenty of big names come up through their system, but not someone who arrived with this kind of hype.
The bloodline, the rankings from industry insiders and the video game numbers Guerrero produced in the minors meant this guy was supposed to become a cornerstone for not only the franchise, but the entire sport. Throughout his amateur career, he was a man among boys.
One year into his tenure with the Jays and Guerrero is still trying to live up to that potentially unfair hype. His rookie season — by most standards — was solid, especially considering he debuted at age 20, at a time when other ballplayers his age were still in school or competing in the lower levels. Still, everyone was left wanting more, much more.
In conversations with employees of other teams, fellow beat reporters, even family and friends, when the topic of baseball comes up the question they ask is almost always the same: “What’s up with Vladdy?” The answer isn’t as complex as you might think.
“Anybody who is 21, 22, 23, a 10-year-old, if he’s not really doing what everybody thinks, the confidence is going to come down,” Jays manager Charlie Montoyo said of his young star’s early season struggles. “That’s when our coaches come and try to keep working with guys and get that confidence back. The only way you can do that is by getting hits and stuff.”
There haven’t been many of those this year. Guerrero has gotten off to a slow start, albeit in a small sample size. The 21-year-old entered Saturday hitting .214 with a .283 on-base percentage and a well-belowaverage 88 weighted runs created plus. Five of his nine hits had gone for extra bases, and only one left the yard.
Guerrero’s biggest issue continues to be hitting too many balls on the ground. Like last year, he’s making hard contact but he’s not doing much with it. In 2019, Guerrero hit 50.4 per cent of balls put into play on the ground with an average launch angle of 6.7 degrees. He entered play on Saturday with a 60.6 per cent ground-ball rate and an even lower 6.5-degree launch angle. The line-drive rate dropped by four per cent while the fly-ball mark fell by almost eight year over year.
That’s not the trajectory Toronto had been hoping for after the coaching staff preached bat path and approach throughout the second half of last year. There have been glimpses, such as last August when Guerrero hit .314 with a .977 OPS in 25 games, but overall the young phenom has yet to put everything together for an extended stretch.
In layman’s terms, Guerrero is hitting the top of the baseball far too often. Guerrero has used the barrel of his bat 6.1 per cent of the time in 2020 vs. 7.7 per cent from a year ago. He’s frequently driving the ball into the ground by hitting the upper part of the baseball 48.5 per cent of the time, compared to 39.7 per cent in 2019.
The most troubling part, especially following an offseason when the club claimed Guerrero rededicated himself to a strict diet and fitness routine, is the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. It would be ill-advised to bet against a guy with as much natural talent as Guerrero, but last year’s advanced stats left a lot of room for improvement. Fundamental changes were needed not only to his workout schedule and diet, but his swing. So far, the adjustments have yet to take hold.
Opposing pitchers have used a pretty similar approach to Guerrero since his arrival in the big leagues. Last year, Guerrero saw 55.7 per cent fastballs, 33.7 per cent breaking balls (curveball, slider, etc.) and 10.6 per cent off-speed pitches (changeup, splitter, etc.). This year there has been 64.5 per cent fastballs, 23.7 per cent breaking balls and 11.8 per cent off-speed.
There are differences between the two years, but not big ones. Instead, it’s what Guerrero is doing with those pitches that stands out. Through 11 games this season, Guerrero was batting just .208 with a .292 slugging percentage, no home runs and two doubles on fastballs. Compare that to last year when he was batting .306 with a .476 slugging percentage and 21 extrabase hits on the same pitch.
Guerrero’s performance over the past year is even more disappointing when his numbers are put alongside those of his peers.
Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. broke into the league at 20 and posted 4.2 wins above replacement value in his first year. By year two, his WAR soared to 5.7 after 41 homers and 37 stolen bases.
Washington Nationals star Juan Soto debuted even earlier, at age 19, with similar success. In Soto’s first year, he posted a 2.9 WAR and upped that tally to 4.6 in 2019 while taking on a lead role for the World Series champions.
San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is the same age as Guerrero and broke into the league around the same time. Last year, Tatis posted a 4.1 WAR. Guerrero’s was 1.5.
Instead of those superstars, Baseball Savant lists the 2019 seasons of Nick Ahmed, Robinson Cano, Trea Turner, Starling Marte and Tommy Pham as the comparables for Guerrero. All good players but several notches below the game’s elite. That’s not the company many expected Guerrero to be keeping more than a full year after his debut.
The Blue Jays know what’s wrong with Guerrero. His flaws are easily identifiable through video and advanced stats. The Dominican’s performance might be considered a letdown so far, but it would be foolish to write him off or believe this is as good as he’s going to get.
Guerrero has the tools required to become a star, at least offensively. That he hasn’t been able to tap into those skills quite yet is disappointing, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Bet against him if you must, but struggling at age 21 doesn’t mean much other than he still has a lot to learn and patience is required.