Playoff push changes the equation for Jays
Exposing young roster to October baseball would represent big step forward in rebuild
It seems like almost everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong during the first three weeks of the Blue Jays’ season and yet, thanks to Major League Baseball’s new 16-team format, the playoffs are still very much on the table.
Toronto continued its ascent through the American League standings by taking both ends of Thursday’s doubleheader against the Philadelphia Phillies. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit a walk-off single for a 3-2 win in Game 1, and if that wasn’t dramatic enough the Jays rallied from seven runs down to pull off a 9-8 victory in Game 2 at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.
The Jays have won five consecutive games to move a halfgame ahead of the Orioles for the final spot in the post-season pending the result of Baltimore’s game against the Boston Red Sox. That should be cause for a lot of optimism with approximately five weeks left to play, especially considering the weak competition in the bottom half of the AL.
To earn a berth in the playoffs, the Jays might only have to beat out the Orioles, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. Of that group, only the Rangers figured to be even remotely competitive in 2020. The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, two expected contenders, struggled early and are a combined 16-35 to sit near the bottom of the league, which opened the door for Toronto.
The Blue Jays are in a decent position as they sit one game above .500 despite some earlyseason struggles. Toronto has already lost closer Ken Giles, shortstop Bo Bichette and starter Nate Pearson to injuries. The club is 2-4 in extra innings and has three walk-off losses. A slew of defensive miscues and mental mistakes on the basepaths keep popping up. At times, they have looked sloppy and almost amateurish. Then there are moments like the recent sweep of the Orioles, or Thursday’s doubleheader sweep, where the upside is apparent.
A12-11 record would be much better if a couple of those winnable games went their way, but because of the condensed season and expanded playoffs, the Jays are a third of the way through their schedule with a realistic shot at playing meaningful games over the final month.
“We’ve been in a lot of games and we’ve lost a lot of tough games,” Jays general manager Ross Atkins said about an hour before the doubleheader. “It has been frustrating. As we think about where we are today, it’s not where we had hoped to be. We had hoped to have a better win-loss record.
“Certainly, the injuries have been less than ideal, but I feel very good about the things that are happening here on a daily basis. I feel very good about the foundation that has been set and feel optimistic that we are going to be able to build upon a very good group here. Every day it feels like we’re getting a little bit better.”
Every team operates under its own set of guidelines, but most front offices say they need approximately 60 games to figure out what kind of team they have in any given year. That’s why, during a typical regular season, teams rarely make big moves in April or May. It’s not until early June that trade talks start to heat up, and another few weeks before teams start swapping players.
That’s not possible this year because 60 games are the total number each team will play. Clubs will be forced to make their deals before the end of August if they want to acquire players while maintaining their eligibility for the postseason. By then, Toronto will have barely surpassed 30 games.
Atkins’ difficult decision will be whether to add, subtract or stick with the status quo. If the Jays are buyers, Atkins said they likely would explore adding a starting pitcher to improve depth. If Toronto ends up selling, it stands to reason pending free agents such as Chase Anderson, Anthony Bass, Matt Shoemaker and possibly the injured Giles would be on the move.
The most likely scenario — assuming their spot in the standings remains similar for another week — would be not doing much of anything. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell off the veterans when the Jays might have a shot at the post-season. It also doesn’t make much sense to part with a future asset to make a run at something most people expect would end in a first- or secondround exit.
Taking the middle ground would be the safe and logical play unless the Jays are able to add a piece without giving up much in return. A surprise deal for a big-name player who comes with multiple years of team control is possible, but those deals seem much more likely to happen this off-season unless it’s a complete salary dump.
“It is a small sample size and it is more challenging,” Atkins said of exploring trades so early in the season. “I think as every team goes into the deadline, the information that goes into the equations to make a deal is different: how we’re evaluating an acquisition for a different time period with a different set of standards, and what it means to be in contention. There are a lot of teams in contention, which will change how every team is thinking about the potential of expiring contracts moving.”
To be clear, the only reason the Jays can have this conversation is because of the new post-season format. Toronto is 31⁄ 2 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays and three behind the New York Yankees in the AL East. Both teams figure to finish ahead of Toronto, while the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians normally would have been in the mix for a second wild-card spot. Toronto’s not in that same class, at least not yet.
But these are the new rules and the Jays stand to benefit from them. Just making the post-season and exposing the young roster to October baseball would represent a big step forward in the rebuild, even if the short-term upside remains low.
It’s late August and Toronto still has a chance, something that hasn’t been said since 2016. The Blue Jays have the expanded format to thank for that.