The Jays are buyers this year
But that doesn’t mean they should sell the future.
Ross Atkins’ fifth trade deadline as Blue Jays general manager will be his most difficult one yet. The other four don’t even come close.
For the first time since Atkins’ rookie year, Toronto is a midseason buyer, and unlike 2016, the Blue Jays have enough enticing prospects to make a significant deal. But just because the Jays have the depth to make something big happen doesn’t mean they should.
Qualifying for the post-season is an achievable goal. A World Series title, short of a miracle, not so much. With that in mind, at what point does the cost for an in-season move become too prohibitive for the Blue Jays? That’s the question Atkins and the rest of his front office will be asking themselves in the hours leading to Monday’s 4 p.m. ET trade deadline.
The reason this is Atkins’ most challenging deadline is because there are no easy answers on what to do next. Each of the last four years, Toronto was either in or out, there was no grey area. During Atkins’ first year, faced with a lack of quality prospects, the Jays used their payroll flexibility to take Francisco Liriano’s contract off the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The last three seasons, Atkins sold off his pending free agents to the highest bidders. Toronto’s situation in 2020 is much more complicated.
The Blue Jays should feel motivated to upgrade because they entered play Saturday with a two-game lead for the eighth and final spot in the post-season. They are clear favourites to make the playoffs, especially considering almost every team below them has started selling off assets, or is expected to do so, before Monday’s deadline. With an abbreviated schedule and expanded post-season, the window of opportunity is wide open.
But there should be concerns about trying to do too much, too soon. Cheap rentals aside, the Jays will have to think twice before they part with a significant piece of their future to make a short-term run. Trying to tempt the Cincinnati Reds into trading Trevor Bauer by offering up a package of top prospects doesn’t make much sense when he could be limited to five starts and then bolt after a best-of-three series in October.
These aren’t the 2015 Jays, when most of the pieces in place were in their prime.
Toronto is an up-and-coming team with enough upside to knock off a contender, but there are noticeable flaws, too, that can’t be fixed overnight. The sloppy fielding, poor baserunning and mental miscues indicate this team is more than a player away from being considered a serious threat. Logic suggests the Jays will be better prepared to take a deep run next year.
Atkins vowed to reporters earlier this week that the Jays intend to be “very aggressive” before the deadline but whether that turns into anything noteworthy remains to be seen. For now, the clickbait reports of Toronto touching base about certain players don’t mean anything other than a front office doing its due diligence.
Toronto got one move out of the way earlier this week by acquiring right-hander Taijuan Walker from the Seattle Mariners. Walker slots into the middle of the rotation and gives the Jays increased stability at a time when starters Matt Shoemaker, Nate Pearson and Trent Thornton are on the injured list. Toronto could add another reliever, upgrade the bench, call it a day, and it would have been a productive week.
There is, however, an opportunity to do more. To add a piece not only for this season, but for 2021 and possibly beyond. Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac, Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl, Texas’s Lance Lynn and the Los Angeles Angels’ Dylan Bundy are among the starting pitchers reportedly on the trading block who have at least another year of control.
In an ideal world, that’s the type of piece the Jays would get. Toronto’s 2021 rotation projects as Hyun-Jin Ryu, Pearson and a slew of young but inexperienced options like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch and at some point, the rising Simeon Woods Richardson. Shoemaker is a free agent at the end of the year, while Chase Anderson has a $9.5million (U.S.) team option, which seems unlikely to be picked up. There is room to add, now and later.
Lynn, with a 1.59 ERA across 45 1⁄3 innings this season, would be the perfect fit. The 31-year-old finished fifth in voting for last year’s Cy Young Award and he has been even better this year with 50 strikeouts versus 14 walks across seven starts. A $9.3-million contract for 2021 makes him even more enticing because it would be one less pitcher Toronto needs to add in the off-season.
In some ways, Lynn is this year’s Marcus Stroman, who had a similar amount of control remaining when Atkins traded him to the New York Mets for Kay and Richardson. There was no shortage of criticism directed at Atkins then but, more than a year removed, it’s hard to argue against the deal. After spending four years stocking the farm, it would seem short-sighted to throw it all away for an abbreviated season during the midst of an economic crisis within the sport.
The only deals the Jays should be considering are ones involving players in the low levels of the system who are years away from contributing, or the prospects whose upside has been questioned internally. Keep names like Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Woods Richardson and Alejandro Kirk off-limits and hold out for a bargain.
Toronto should remain focused on the next couple years, not just a best-of-three series in October. If there’s a way to add without sacrificing next year and beyond, Atkins must do it. If there isn’t, so be it: the Blue Jays shouldn’t feel any shame in walking away and trying again this winter.