Greens shake up Canadian politics
One could not claim that an earthquake hit Ottawa a week ago Saturday, but the political landscape was certainly shaken. The election of Annamie Paul by the Green Party should be a wake-up call to every other party.
The Bloc should be nervous about a confident, capable leader who speaks the best French of any non-Francophone politician, who delivers it with a light and humourous touch.
For the Liberals, she promises to be the tough litigator of their climate delivery claims. Probably in a more compelling manner than Elizabeth May, who sometimes appeared to hector.
For Conservatives seeking suburban voters — many of whom told pollsters they did not consider the Tories in 2019 in part due to their laughable climate policy — there is the prospect of further humiliation.
However, it is the Orange team who will need to quickly nail the Greens for their sometimes fairy-tale policy agenda, without appearing to be attacking her, in order to protect its left flank.
Paul threw down the gauntlet in her impressive victory speech, declaring it was only the Greens who were the real vanguard on progressive policy. She is not going to be “all climate all the time” either, rhyming off a series of social justice causes she will fight for.
Paul has little experience in politics. This is usually very risky: remember Liberal saviour Michael Ignatieff?
However, she delivered a strong performance out of the gate, giving an almost flawless, very long, news conference on her first day.
Her professional credentials are breathtaking for a Canadian politician. The professional credentials of her competitors include drama teaching, agent to entertainers and two lawyers with rather brief careers in the law. She played several leadership and diplomatic roles internationally, including as an adviser to the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court. She founded two NGOs and speaks four languages. It is presumably due to this very broad experience at a senior level internationally that has given her such quiet confidence.
Paul faces at least three strategic challenges, however. She is probably wise to run in the Toronto Centre byelection for several reasons. She grew up there and ran in 2019. Perhaps more importantly, she will generate a lot of ink. She will not, however, win, unless both the Liberals and the NDP run very poor campaigns — not a good bet.
She needs to find a seat with deeper Green roots and there are several she can choose from. If, as seems likely, we are heading for a spring 2021 election, she will need to move quickly in finding that home.
Her second challenge is related to the first. In a curious decision, former leader May has decided to run again. Retiring leaders normally, you know, retire. A more gracious decision might have been to offer her successor her riding. Managing the party’s performance in the house with May still in her chair seems destined to lead to friction.
Her third challenge will be professionalizing her party. There have been bitter internal battles over policy, over internal decision-making, over unacceptable social media commentary and, most visibly, very weak candidate vetting.
Several long-term activists whisper about the “absence of internal democracy,” claiming that May and a small inner circle make decisions with too little consultation.
A party leader needs to be confident about the state of their organization and must lay down the law about unacceptable behaviour — especially months away from a general election.
She will attempt to pull everyone to the left on climate policy, taunting them if they refuse. When she is in the house, she seems likely to be an impressive performer.
Charisma is a tired and not very useful political cliche, connoting as it does celebrity and theatricality. But “likability” really does matter. Likability is political gold: Jack Layton, Jean Chrétien and Rachel Notley had it. As they come to know Annamie Paul, I expect she will become, for many younger Canadians, their most liked.
First, she needs to get a seat. Robin V. Sears