Horgan rides a wave of popularity as Kenney sinks

The contrast is amazing.

In B.C., NDP Premier John Horgan looks set to cruise to victory in Saturday’s election. Next door in Alberta, Jason Kenney has three years to go before he has to face voters. But he and his UCP government are flailing about, losing support they could once easily count on.

Such a difference from the early days of Horgan’s minority government, which depended on the wobbly reinforcement of three Greens.

Such a difference for Kenney’s UCP, which crushed Rachel Notley’s NDP last year but, according to a recent Angus Reid Institute poll, is now tied with the NDP. For Kenney and the UCP, that’s a drop in support of 17 percentage points from its performance in the May 2019 election.

Horgan on the other hand is well ahead of his nearest rival — the B.C. Liberals (who are really conservatives). The poll aggregator, 338Canada.com, which provides statistical analysis based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data, projects the NDP will win 56 seats, the Liberals 29 and the Greens two. That’s an increase of 15 seats for the NDP and would give them a solid majority government.

When Horgan called the election there was a lot of public griping about how there was no need for an election now, especially during a pandemic when campaigning is so restricted, and also because he was ignoring next year’s fixed election date. He was called opportunistic — just like all those other politicians that NDPers like to distinguish themselves from. But that doesn’t seem to have eroded support for the affable NDP leader.

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Like most provinces in Canada, the situation regarding COVID-19 in B.C. isn’t as good as it was in the summer, but overall Horgan and his team have received high marks for their handling of the crisis. They let their smart and telegenic provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, lead the way, which took a lot of the politics out of decision-making, thereby encouraging public trust.

Last week, Horgan promised to revamp long-term-care facilities where so many people died during the early days of the pandemic. His plan includes hiring 7,000 new health-care workers in long-term and assisted-living care, and paying care workers fair wages so they can work in one facility.

Horgan also promised long-term-care aides that the wage top-up they received because of the pandemic will be made permanent.

Which brings us to the Alberta premier. It’s hard to believe, but last week as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations were rising, Kenney’s health minister, Tyler Shandro, announced that 9,000 to 11,000 health-care workers, people who work in labs, prepare meals, do the laundry and clean hospitals — mostly women — will be laid off.

Well, not technically laid off, according to the health minister, because those services will be contracted out to private companies, which of course means some workers can keep their jobs if they want lower pay and forego the protection of a union.

Kenney and his health minister have also been carrying out open warfare with the province’s doctors since they tore up the contract with the Alberta Medical Association in February. Some physicians have already packed their bags and moved to B.C., citing the hostile political environment and declining compensation in Alberta as the main reasons. It also appears the government plans to cut 500 full-time nursing positions after the pandemic is declared to be over.

And then there is the Alberta’s government’s plan to attract more private surgical clinics. In contrast, Horgan wants to eventually eliminate private, for-profit long-term care and make it part of the public system.

Granted, Alberta is in the middle of a serious economic disruption given the pandemic combined with the low price and slowing demand for oil. And Kenney is facing a $24-billion deficit.

But is creating chaos in the healthcare system while the pandemic’s second wave is in full swing the way to go? Or does Kenney want even more Albertans to consider moving to B.C.?

If so, he’s doing a great job of convincing them there are greener fields to the west.