Projections pushed back for Pearson
Young right-hander’s future is bright, but expect his innings to be limited in 2021
The Blue Jays made the playoffs in this unique year and are on the rise, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions heading into next season. This is the third in a five-part series on the decisions that lie ahead:
Major League Baseball’s abbreviated season wreaked havoc on almost every pitching staff across the league. Innings were down, regular routines were thrown into disarray and more guys than usual had to adjust to new roles.
That’s particularly concerning for the Blue Jays organization, which is filled with young arms still in the process of being developed. Veterans with proven track records will be expected to bounce back with relative ease; the less experienced arms without a body of work to fall back on might experience more trouble.
Toronto’s biggest concern is top prospect Nate Pearson, who is as crucial to the future success of this organization as anyone currently wearing a Toronto uniform.
The 24-year-old phenom was projected to throw somewhere in the range of 125 to 140 innings this season but ended up throwing just 20, including the post-season.
What will that mean for his future development and how will it impact a potential innings limit in 2021? The answer might not be as complicated as you’d think.
“I think we’re in a little better place than we were last year,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said earlier this month.
“It’s not worse. He had a very productive off-season. A lot of the workload on his arm occurred before summer camp had started, before spring training had started.
“We were talking about, in a worst-case scenario for Nate Pearson, how we could manage his workload if he wasn’t able to pitch in competitive environments. We had already started that process of him being built up, so we feel like we’ll be able to build upon where he was going into 2020.”
If that’s true, and at this point it’s still a big if, Pearson should be in decent shape for the 2021 season. Each team has its own unique way of dealing with innings limits, but the typical industry standard over the last decade has been pitchers increasing their workloads by approximately 20-30 per cent from one year to the next.
Toronto has never publicly committed to following that exact path, choosing instead to say each situation is different. Advances in technology over the last several years have also provided teams with the tools required to notice signs of fatigue, such as a drop in arm angle, spin rate and velocity. Still, the previous model provides a rough estimate.
That means if Pearson tossed 130 to 140 innings in 2020, by next year he would have been ready to take on the full workload typically associated with a starter. He wouldn’t have been prepared to become a 200-inning workhorse, but somewhere in the range of 155 to 175 would have reasonable.
Pearson won’t be prepared to throw that much next season, but the good news for the Jays is they don’t think his innings will have to be reduced from what they were a year ago. He returned in the final week of the season after missing almost a month with a right elbow injury, and he might still be in line to throw this year’s initial projection of 125 to 140 innings.
“It was just so good to see the velocity was there, his slider was there, his changeup was effective, swing and miss was there,” Atkins said. “Very good delivery, he was in the zone. That last outing in Tampa, that’s as good as it gets for a young pitcher.
“What I think it means is that he made progress this year, even though he had the injury and had the setback. He made his major-league debut, he showed he can get majorleague hitters out, and he will better because of that in his progression next year.”
Innings limits will be an ongoing topic of discussion throughout the 2021 season. Pitchers like Pearson and Julian Merryweather, who are still being built up, will be monitored the closest. But Atkins said Toronto’s if starters previously reached a full workload, they should be fine next year despite the disrupted season.
Lefty Anthony Kay reached 1332⁄ 3 innings in 2019 and can use that as his baseline for 2021. Right-hander Thomas Hatch tossed at least 124 in four consecutive seasons before making his big-league debut this year out of the bullpen.
“A way to think about it, in a relatively simple way, is to think about a pitcher who misses a year because of a season-ending surgery,” Atkins said. “If they had the workload built up and had pitched 140 to 200 innings, and certainly if they had done that for several years and only missed one year, it’s less of a concern. It’s more challenging for the guys who don’t have that foundation. We have some players in both of those categories, that’s why the depth feels like a strength to us.”
Pearson’s condensed 2020 season might not have been as big of a setback as once thought. The future looks bright for one of the game’s hardest throwers, but before he can become an ace, his overall innings will have to skyrocket. That’s not going to happen next year, but 2022 is still possible. Pearson will just have to stay healthy in order to make it finally happen.