Dash for cash
The retooling Leafs did quick work in the off-season. In the end, several job battles could come down to the size of the contract
It’s not a term spoken much around professional sports, but the NHL’s salary cap is a living, breathing example of what economists mean when they talk about opportunity cost.
The concept: to do one thing means you don’t have the opportunity to do another. So choose wisely.
Take where the Maple Leafs were in the summer of 2019.
They traded veteran forward Patrick Marleau and a first-round draft pick to Carolina for a seventh-round pick. Taken on its own, it’s the most lopsided trade ever made. But when you consider the salary-cap implications — the opportunity cost — it was a terrific move: Would you rather have Marleau and that pick (who turned into Seth Jarvis of the Portland Winter Hawks) or Mitch Marner, re-signed in part because of the cap space created by moving Marleau?
Things have been a little easier on Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas this off-season, but not by much. He was facing a flat cap of $81.5 million (U.S.) and had already made some salary choices before the pandemic messed up both the season and financial planning.
The Leafs had $56.2 million committed to eight players: from centre Auston Matthews ($11.634 million average annual value) to winger Zach Hyman ($2.25 million). And they still owe Phil Kessel $1.2 million after a 2015 trade with Pittsburgh.
That left Dubas with $24.1 million in cap space. He has spent more than $26 million on new contracts for next season, however, dating back to deals made in-season with players to ward off free agency. And he still has to come to terms with restricted free agents Travis Dermott and Joey Anderson.
It’s OK to go over the cap by as much as 10 per cent during the off-season, and some of the players he signed may not make the opening night roster.
Here’s a closer look at who’s in, who’s out, who got raises and what it all means. (All figures are in U.S. dollars and based on the average annual value of the player’s contract.)
THE RETURNEES
On contracts signed before last season ($56,239,366): á Auston Matthews, C ($11.634 million) á John Tavares, C ($11 million) á Mitch Marner, F ($10.893 million) á William Nylander, F ($6.962 million) á Morgan Rielly, D ($5 million) á Frederik Andersen, G ($5 million) á Alex Kerfoot, F ($3.5 million) á Zach Hyman, F ($2.25 million)
Of this group, Hyman and Andersen can become unrestricted free agents after next season. It’s believed the Leafs peddled both Andersen and Kerfoot, more in an attempt to create cap space than because of any organizational dissatisfaction with their play. Andersen is under the gun in some quarters, blamed for the team’s lack of postseason success.
Retained with new deals ($13.57 million-plus):
Some players were due for raises, and Dubas handed out about $5 million extra to retain his own players. They were mostly modest raises, certainly in comparison to the giant hikes that Matthews and Marner enjoyed at the start of the 2019-20 season.
Jake Muzzin, D (from $4 million to $5.625 million)
Muzzin’s cap hit rose by $1.625 million with an in-season extension that made him the highest-paid defenceman in Toronto. He is reliable in his own end and can kill penalties. He’s physical and he’s a leader. Plays the tough minutes against the other team’s big lines. Any team would be happy to have him.
Justin Holl, D (from $675,000 to $2 million)
The right-handed defenceman saw his salary rise by $1.325 million with an in-season extension. He is big and strong, physical and plays a style liked by coach Sheldon Keefe. At 28, he doesn’t have a great deal of NHL experience. The price seemed about right in a pre-pandemic world. If he progresses, he might still look like a bargain.
Jack Campbell, G (from $675,000 to $1.65 million)
The backup goalie got an in-season extension shortly after being acquired from Los Angeles in February. His cap hit rose $975,000. But he instantly filled a gap in net that had been missing since Curtis McElhinney was lost on waivers in 2018. He proved to be a reliable backup, and perhaps someone who could run with the job if Andersen falters.
Ilya Mikheyev, F (from $925,000 to $1.645 million)
The Soupman avoided arbitration and got a modest raise of $720,000. He was trending toward being quite the find before suffering a season-ending wrist injury mid-season. If he finds that game again, he’ll offer great value in the top six, especially at this price. And given the deal is for two years, he’s great insurance depending on how contract talks with Hyman play out.
Pierre Engvall, F (from $925,000 to $1.25 million)
The rookie centre got a modest boost of $325,000 a year. His play fell off considerably after he signed the extension, though, and Dubas may come to rue even such a small raise. Given the other players signed, Engvall may not even make the Leafs this year. And if he plays in the minors, not all of his salary could be buried: $175,000 of it would count against the cap. á Travis Dermott, D (from $863,333-)
His final price tag has yet to be determined, but it’s doubtful the restricted free agent will garner much of a raise. His place even as a top-six defenceman is in doubt, with Zach Bogosian and Mikko Lehtonen now under contract. Jason Spezza, F ($700,000 again) The popular winger nicknamed Vintage returns at the league minimum, the same price tag as last year. Seems like a no-brainer at that number. Martin Marincin, D ($700,000 again) Everyone’s favourite seventh defenceman is now a little further down the depth chart and will probably start in the AHL with the Marlies. At that price, same as last year, he’s decent insurance and a defenceman the coaching staff knows and trusts, even if fans don’t.
THE FREE AGENTS
Three defencemen ($6.925 million):
The departures of free-agent defencemen Cody Ceci (Pittsburgh) and Tyson Barrie (Edmonton) created $7.25 million in cap space. Muzzin’s raise ate some of that, but Dubas didn’t ignore the Leafs’ weakest position. T.J. Brodie ($5 million) By all accounts, Brodie is the answer to the Leafs’ problems on the right side of the blue line, even though he shoots left-handed. He’s a driver of possession (52 per cent last year, 56 per cent the year before). He might be the best right-side defenceman they’ve had since Bryan McCabe. He’ll play more than 20 minutes a game, and seems suited to giving Rielly the best partner he’s had. á Zach Bogosian ($1 million)
A low-risk add with a physical side and the ability to kill penalties. Keefe now has a lot of choices, though, and Bogosian could find himself in a rotation with Dermott and others. His style would pair well with Dermott. Mikko Lehtonen ($925,000) Another low-risk add who is getting rave reviews for his start with Jokerit of the KHL. It’s not always easy for European defencemen to fit in during their first year, as evidenced by past experiments with Igor Ozhiganov, Calle Rosen and Andreas Borgman. But Lehtonen’s star is on the rise, and it’s certainly a chance worth taking.
Five forwards ($4.725 million):
Trading Kasperi Kapanen (to Pittsburgh) and Andreas Johnsson (to New Jersey) created $6.6 million in cap space, and other departures — free agents Kyle Clifford (St. Louis) and Frederik Gauthier (unsigned) — moved that number to more than $8 million. Wayne Simmonds ($1.5 million) The Leafs are counting on a return to health by the 32-year-old from Scarborough. His physical game adds an element they were lacking, but here’s hoping his scoring prowess returns to make the bottom six more feared. He took less than Montreal was offering. Alexander Barabanov ($925,000) The Leafs hope Barabanov can be the second coming of Mikheyev. A decent scorer with St. Petersburg of the KHL, the 26-year-old Barabanov has Olympic gold (2018) to his credit. Jimmy Vesey ($900,000) The Leafs were higher on Vesey than most teams. His star was once on the rise, but waned after a nine-goal season. The price tag is low and the reward is high if he can regain the form that won him the Hobey Baker Award in 2016 as the best U.S. college player. á Joe Thornton ($700,000)
If this 41-year-old Hall of Famer in waiting can play like he did in his late 30s, the Leafs will have upgraded their bottom six tremendously. He drives puck possession and can make great plays and passes. If his play drops off, the cost is minimal. Travis Boyd ($700,000) Boyd yo-yoed between Washington and AHL Hershey in his first three years. He’s six-foot with a reputation for solid two-way play. What he does defensively in the bottom six will determine if he stays or joins the Marlies.
One goaltender ($1 million): á Aaron Dell ($1 million) The career backup gives them a third goalie upgrade on departed Marlie Kasimir Kaskisuo (Nashville).
OVER THE LIMIT
Joey Anderson, F The unsigned restricted free agent is likely competing with Boyd and Engvall for a job.
If you were counting, we’ve mentioned 26 players — three over the NHL roster limit and over the salary cap, even without numbers for Dermott and Anderson. Look for Dell and Anderson — and probably Marincin, maybe Engvall — to join the ranks of Nic Petan, Denis Malgin, Rasmus Sandin, Calle Rosen and Timothy Liljegren. Any of them might play on a lesser NHL team, but each will have to outperform a more experienced NHLer to win a job with the Leafs. For young defencemen Sandin and Liljegren, playing big minutes in the minors would be more beneficial to their development than lesser roles in the NHL. The same goes for promising forward Nick Robertson, though his future would be in junior if he fails to make the NHL roster.
And next year, given how tight the Leafs are expected to be against the cap, the difference between playing in the NHL and not might come down to the size of the contract — with those at the minimum more easily recalled.