Aiming higher than Grichuk in centre
Although move unlikely this winter, key position will need an upgrade sooner than later
The Blue Jays made the playoffs in this unique year and are on the rise, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions heading into next season. This is the fourth in a five-part series on the decisions that lie ahead:
There are “must-haves” on the Blue Jays’ off-season shopping list and then there are the positions that could use an upgrade but might be left alone until a later date.
The essentials include a third baseman or middle infielder, upgrading the starting rotation and adding depth to the bullpen. The “nice to have” is a long-term solution to centre field. The position is not currently considered a pressing priority, but it might not be long before it becomes one.
So what to do with Randal Grichuk and the $31 million (U.S.) he’s owed over the next three years? The answer this winter is probably nothing, but there’s an argument to be made for a more aggressive approach.
Grichuk has been perfectly fine as a stopgap solution in centre on a rebuilding ball club, but as the Jays move closer to contention they will have to start aiming higher, especially considering there are defensive questions about the guys playing to his left and right.
According to Baseball Savant, Grichuk tied for 32nd among 39 qualified centre-fielders this season with minus-one outs above average. Last year, he was marginally better, tied for 23rd with two OAA across 62 games. Defensive runs saved paints a similar picture, with Grichuk posting minus-eight in 2020 vs. plus-two a year ago.
Grichuk’s lack of range in centre would be less noticeable if he were surrounded by plus defenders, but this is an outfield where no one can hide. Teoscar Hernandez remains a liability in right, and after a breakout season at the plate he’s staying put. In left, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has displayed promise with the glove, but is prone to gaffes and requires someone regularly backing him up.
The defence could be overlooked if Grichuk was consistently performing with the bat. Few people seem to complain about balls finding the gap when the Texan is riding a hot streak. The problem is Grichuk frequently goes through long slumps and has yet to put together a full season since arriving in a trade with St. Louis prior to 2018.
There has been a similar script to each of Grichuk’s seasons in Toronto, even if the timing of events differs. Typically, it goes something like this: Grichuk struggles and eventually his performance skyrockets after adjusting his mechanics. The Jays swoon over the production, and someone in the media inevitably writes a glowing piece about how Grichuk has become a new player.
It happened in 2018 when he came back from injury. It happened in 2019 after a blistering final two months to the season, and it happened again this year after he was put under the tutelage of major-league coach Dante Bichette. The positive changes never seem to last.
The proof is in the numbers. In 2018, Grichuk posted a .700 OPS in the first half and .895 in the second. Last year, he was batting .229 with a .696 OPS through 102 games before slugging 14 homers with an .822 OPS over the final two months. This season, there was even more hoopla after Grichuk hit .297 with a .915 OPS through the end of August. In the final month, he reverted to his old ways with a .245 average and .646 OPS.
Add it all up and Grichuk has a .244 average, .293 OBP, .770 OPS and 105 OPS+ across three seasons in Toronto. The numbers are almost identical to what he produced over four years in St. Louis. At age 29, it’s possible there’s a breakout season still to come, but there are even more reasons to believe this is the player he will usually be.
Returning Grichuk to the corner would solve some of Toronto’s problems, but unless Hernandez transitions to designated hitter it’s not possible. There’s also the not-sosmall detail of needing to replace Grichuk in centre, where the list of options on the open market lacks depth.
This year’s top free agents are Houston’s George Springer and Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr. On the trade front, Starling Marte might become available for the second consecutive year, but after not showing much interest last winter, the Jays don’t figure to be among the favourites. Another option is the Cincinnati Reds’ Nick
Senzel, who is coming off a terrible season but, at 25, offers upside.
Internally, the Jays have options, just not ones they are likely to turn to in 2021. Jonathan Davis has a chance to make next year’s team as a fourth outfielder and defensive replacement, but he’s unlikely to start full-time unless someone gets hurt. Cavan Biggio played centre three times this year, but he’s better off elsewhere and seems unlikely to become a long-term solution.
The best bet might be 2020 first-round pick Austin Martin, who has enough athleticism and versatility to play just about anywhere. The Jays have yet to decide on his position, and if Martin gets a shot at centre it’s possible the standout from Vanderbilt will be ready to take over by 2022.
Considering these factors, it’s unlikely the Jays will make any changes in centre field this winter, but if a team inquires about Grichuk, they should jump at the opportunity to move him regardless of the return.
The Jays have options at the corners. It’s centre where an upgrade is needed, and at some point Grichuk’s contract is going to get in the way.
The Jays don’t have to make a move in centre over the next couple of months, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be trying to get something done. Sometimes it’s better to make a trade a year too early than a year too late.