For Canada, hope glimmers through last U.S. debate
For those of us sifting through the dregs of politics for glimmers of hope, the U.S. presidential debate on Thursday night was at least marginally rewarding.
President Donald Trump not only seemed to take the advice of his advisers to tone it down a bit from the last time, he also played mostly by the rules — helped along by a strong and able moderator.
That’s a brief reversion to politics as they used to be, and a welcome change for Canadians concerned about chaos if the results in two weeks’ time are indecisive.
If those traits of tradition stick, then Canada’s biggest fears of a disruptive transition of power and all that it would entail for Canadian security and prosperity don’t have to materialize. We can soldier on, muddling through as we have during the past four years under Trump or figuring out how to deal with a president Joe Biden.
But we certainly can’t take that kind of stability for granted, especially in the context of the pandemic.
The prime minister’s press conference on Friday was telling.
At first, he offered words of assurance.
“I have always had confidence in Americans and (their) capacity to move forward in a successful way,” he said, pointing to their long history of holding peaceful, democratic and fair elections.
Plan A, of course, is to assume that traditions will be upheld and that the democratic spirit runs deep. Since Trump came to power, Canadians have leaned on the solidity of American institutions to carry us through the rough times.
Besides, the PM said, Canada has managed well enough during recent trade disputes and procurement battles and is well armed to face similar challenges again, regardless of the outcome of the Nov. 3 elections.
But the rest of his news conference was all about the urgency of vaccines and testing, and those are closely tied to the ups and downs of presidential politics in the United States too. Perhaps even more so than the perennial trade disputes and the routine securing of supply chains that have always dominated Canada-U.S. relations.
How to make sure Canada is at the top of the list to get enough vaccines for everyone is a Canadian policy question, but it’s also a U.S.-dominanceof-the-supply question. How to ensure those vaccines are safe is a Health Canada matter, but it’s also a matter of whether Trump pulls all sorts of strings to make true his prediction of Thursday night — that a vaccine is coming within weeks. Approving and procuring rapid tests for all who want them in Canada is not just a made-inCanada manufacturing issue but also competition-forsupplies issue with the United States.
It’s no accident that Trudeau devoted much of his news conference to assuring Canadians that any vaccine would be safe and well tested by Health Canada, and that Canadian authorities would devote no end of money and aggression to tracking down testing and vaccine supplies for our own use.
Underlying all that talk is an unpredictable United States.
When the prime minister and top officials met with premiers earlier this month to discuss the U.S. election, there were five hot topics on his list of things to watch and prepare for.
Number one was COVID-19. The virus can seep over the border, but it’s more than that.
The attitudes to containing it spread too. Anti-maskers, cavalier attitudes to the rising number of cases, and false information about how to control it are all as much of a threat to Canada’s national security as steel tariffs.
The other items on the PM’s list were more traditional: trade — both Biden and Trump pose challenges for Canada with their inclination toward “Buy America;” and climate change — Biden’s ambition gives Canada more leeway to act but would also throw us a competitive challenge in the clean energy business.
And energy writ large was also on that list — the fate of the Keystone pipeline under Biden, the stiff competition from U.S. oil producers and the too-low price Canadian producers are driven to accept.
Of course, U.S. engagement in international organizations and global politics rounded out the list, with the future of NATO, the United Nations and the World Health Organization all in flux because of unpredictable and uncertain American support.
Canada knows how to deal strategically with all those challenges, and we’ve upped our bilateral game over the past few years, learning how to make our views heard loud and clear even though we haven’t had a U.S. ambassador in Canada for months on end.
But the risks associated with the pandemic — vaccines, supplies, attitudes and the virus itself — pose a red-alert situation for Canada-U.S. relations if the presidency is unstable.
Let’s hope Trump’s newfound adherence to taking advice from smart people and playing by the rules is more than a one-night event.
“I have always had confidence in Americans and (their) capacity to move forward in a successful way.” JUSTIN TRUDEAU PRIME MINISTER