In defence of Gurriel’s value
Better glovework completes an enticing package — whether he stays or goes
Despite being one of three finalists, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. wasn’t expected to win a Gold Glove award on Tuesday night. Gurriel didn’t rank near the top of most defensive metrics and he still has a few too many gaffes to be considered a whiz in left field. It was surprising he got nominated in the first place.
That isn’t a knock on the Blue Jays’ third-year player out of Cuba. Being mentioned at all among the game’s best fielders proves how far he has come over the last couple of seasons. Once considered a liability, his defence is starting to become an asset.
The most popular defensive stats aren’t that impressive, yet. Gurriel finished tied for 32nd among MLB left-fielders with minus-two outs above average, per Statcast. He finished 32nd with minus-two runs prevented while his success rate on catches was 87 per cent, down two points from his expected success rate of 89. Gurriel was seventh out of 11 qualified leftfielders with minus-three defensive runs saved.
With rankings like that it’s no wonder he lost to Kansas City’s Alex Gordon for the Gold Glove, which this year is based solely on the SABR defensive index (SDI) because of the condensed season. According to SABR, the SDI “draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts.” Other years, managers and coaches also vote for the awards.
There are undeniable strengths to Gurriel’s defence. He ranked sixth in the AL with three outfield assists, a number that would have been higher if teams continued to challenge his arm. He has been in left for less than two years, and the more experience he gets the fewer miscues there should be. The 27-year-old has the athleticism, and certainly the arm strength, to stick in left for a long time. The man without a position found a home after failed experiments at shortstop and second base.
The improved defence bolsters Gurriel’s value, especially when it’s combined with a bat that has been considered an asset for quite some time. Across parts of three seasons, Gurriel is batting .287 with a .327 on-base percentage, .836 OPS and 123 OPS+ in 771 atbats. He runs hot and cold, but he will be expected to post strong numbers over the next several years barring good health.
It’s a skill set that will attract interest from other teams this winter, especially considering Gurriel’s affordable contract and the sport’s current financials. The former amateur free agent is set to earn $3.9 million (U.S.) in 2021, $4.9 million in 2022 and $5.8 million in 2023. There is one extra year of arbitration in 2024, and he’s not eligible for free agency until 2025.
That deal is an even bigger bargain than normal as teams cut payrolls during the pandemic. A lot of players are expected to be available this winter in salary dumps, Gurriel is one of several Jays other clubs would want in return. It doesn’t make sense to aggressively shop Gurriel, but there are reasons the front office should be inclined to listen to offers, and maybe even initiate a few of its own.
Toronto currently has three outfielders who do their best work in the corners. The man in centre, Randal Grichuk, is owed approximately $33 million over the next three years and seems unlikely to be traded because of his contract. That means the Jays are faced with upgrading centre and moving Grichuk to a corner spot or sticking with the status quo.
If Grichuk moved to right field, Teoscar Hernandez makes sense as a DH. Alternatively, they have the option of keeping Hernandez in the field and exploring what Gurriel would fetch in return. Guys like Bo Bichette, Nate Pearson, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson aren’t going anywhere.
Gurriel’s name has been mentioned before in the rumour mill, and don’t be shocked if it pops up again. He’s a guy the Jays would be able to move, even if they don’t want to.
Of course, Toronto doesn’t have to trade Gurriel, but it never hurts to listen. Whether he gets floated as part of a package for a front-line starter or a cornerstone position player such as Francisco Lindor, his name is bound to garner attention during the off-season hot stove. Nothing less should be expected from a front office that prides itself on due diligence and exploring every possible scenario.
The real case for, or against, trading Gurriel can’t be made in earnest until offers become known. What’s obvious is that the Jays wouldn’t move him unless they get a significant piece in return. Just because Gurriel is one of their most attractive trade chips doesn’t mean he’s about to be cashed in.
Some difficult questions must be answered by GM Ross Atkins in the coming weeks. Are the Jays willing to purchase most of their upgrades through free agency? If not, will the club restrict its trade assets to those in the lower minors, thereby limiting the upside of a return? Or are they prepared to move a core piece as part of a bigger shakeup?
The answers depend on which opportunities are presented this winter. At this point, it’s too early to know for sure. Ideally, they add while keeping the core intact. But if centre field is addressed, keep an eye on Gurriel’s situation because he’s someone who could be on the move for the right offer.
Until then, Gurriel remains a perfect fit right where he is, getting better by the day in left field at the Rogers Centre, in Buffalo or wherever the Jays happen to be hosting games.