■ Computer modelling predicts ‘horrifying scenario’ as daily cases skyrocket,

Premier, chief medical officer chided for leaving measures to health units

Ontario is hurtling toward as many as 6,500 new daily cases of COVID-19 by mid-December, four times the current record level, computer modelling predicts as Premier Doug Ford resists calls for stronger provincial action to slow the spread.

“Our cases will likely exceed some jurisdictions in Europe that are now under lockdown,” Dr. Adalsteinn Brown of the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health warned Thursday at a briefing w

The rate of growth in new infections has risen from four per cent over the last seven days to six per cent in the last three days with a string of all-time highs, escalating risks of “substantially” higher death rates in nursing-home residents that have already risen sharply in recent weeks, the forecasts indicate.

Ontario reported a record 1,575 new infections Thursday.

“I don’t believe there’s a way the cases will change without action,” Brown told a news conference at Queen’s Park with Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer.

At a minimum, cases are expected to rise to 2,000 daily even if growth can be slowed.

“Ontario has to change course right now, or people will die,” said NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, calling the projections “horrific.”

The modelling also forecast hospital intensive care units will top 150 COVID-19 patients w any new restrictions, reaching a level at which non-emergency surgeries for cancer, heart and other conditions backlogged in the first wave of the pandemic will have to be reduced.

Unless strong measures are taken, there will be at least 400 such patients requiring intensive care, which is above the level of 350 where officials have warned it becomes “virtually impossible” to perform nonemergency surgeries.

“It’s a horrifying scenario that looks like it’s about to become real … I don’t think there’s any doubt that there will be a major shift and cancellation of scheduled surgical activities,” said Anthony Dale, president of the Ontario Hospital Association.

Williams and Ford have faced intense criticism over the past week since releasing a new provincial framework for COVID-19 restrictions that mostly leaves specific measures to Ontario’s 34 regional public health units and eases thresholds for implementing them. Toronto, for example, is continuing a ban on indoor dining for four more weeks.

Many doctors and epidemiologists, along with the Ontario

Medical Association, consider the provincial framework benchmarks too lax and fear they could let the pandemic run further out of control.

Asked what level of cases and other infection metrics could prompt him to advise Ford’s government to impose restrictions, Williams said: “Those are all questions that have to be answered and we have to answer them fairly soon.”

“It’s a critical time,” he added, urging Ontarians to pay closer attention to pandemic precautions such as wearing masks, physical distancing and handwashing. “It is alarming. We

your attention on this matter.”

Ford has repeatedly maintained there has to be a “balance” between pandemic restrictions and keeping businesses open so that people can earn a living. The province has mandated, for example, earlier closing times for bars and restaurants and shorter hours for alcohol sales.

Other opposition parties said the premier has allowed COVID-19 to spread far too rapidly in a new strategy that has backfired.

“Doug Ford is driving Ontario off a cliff with his COVID-19 response,” said Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca.

“This is the disturbing consequence we’ve been warning about and calling on the Ford government to avoid,” Green Leader Mike Schreiner added. “But the government has been slow to act and Ford is taking his hands off the wheel at a time when we need leadership.”

The briefing on the modelling revealed tracking of wastewater has found provincial restrictions imposed starting Thanksgiving Saturday in Toronto, Peel and Ottawa, including a ban on indoor dining and closures of gyms and theatres, have had “some effect” in slowing growth of the virus.