Attracting free agents key to success
The Raptors have proven to be an outstanding NBA franchise when it comes to constructing teams built for sustained success.
They have drafted astutely and developed their own talent as well as any franchise in the league over the past half decade or so and, when they have swung trades, they have added vital pieces without losing too much.
That has allowed them to build a team that has won more regular-season games than any other team over the past five years, and there’s a championship banner hanging from the rafters of Scotiabank Arena that is a testament to their organizational skill.
But there is a third, vital component to the roster-building trilogy and the Raptors have to nail it, beginning Friday.
Free agency.
While the Raptors have a long history of success in getting their core players to re-sign and provide much-needed continuity, they have not had much luck in attracting talent. That has to change. In the fast-moving NBA, where rosters are reset seemingly hourly and pretenders somehow find ways to pick up pieces that fill gaping holes, the Raptors not only can’t stand pat, they have to improve to keep up.
Look at the East: Two teams that went out in the first round of the playoffs last season are poised to make giant strides. Brooklyn will add Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and may be in on a potential James Harden trade. Philadelphia found the shooting it needs in draft night trades to acquire Seth Curry and Danny Green to go with a new coach in Doc Rivers.
Milwaukee is still Milwaukee with Jrue Holiday an upgrade on Eric Bledsoe, Boston is still Boston, Miami is the defending conference champion. And Toronto? Still really good but riddled with what-ifs.
Forget, for a moment, the fate of key free agents Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Much of the league is convinced the Raptors will make an offer, in years and money, that will lead to VanVleet returning. That’s a huge plus and a must-do if they hope to remain legitimate contenders in the top half of the conference.
“(Our) biggest priority for the off-season is bringing him back,” general manager Bobby Webster said this week. “He had a great run four years, we fully expect that to continue, and everything’s been positive.”
That’s great. If they can get Ibaka back on a short-term deal, that’s even better. And an aging Gasol still has something in the tank but his loss would not be crippling. But even if we start at that jumping off point — VanVleet back and one of Ibaka and Gasol returning — it’s likely not enough.
That makes these next few days critical, and history does not suggest the Raptors will hit home runs. All of their tremendous growth over the past six seasons or so has come from their ability to find gems in the draft or after it (VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby) or in trades (Kawhi Leonard, Gasol) and not by buying talent. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was a bit piece, Stanley Johnson was a sunk cost: Toronto’s pure free-agent moves have not been earth-shaking.
And the way the East is shaping up today — consider at least two of Toronto, Milwaukee, Boston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Miami will lose in the second round of the playoffs — something close to earthshaking might be necessary.
There’s no reason to think that Webster and president Masai Ujiri won’t be up to the task but all their wonderful ability to find and nurture young players does not mean anything in the coming season. They need players. Good players. Players who can make a difference. It’s matter of the team’s leadership being able to pull it off.
It would make sense for them to make hard-sell calls on players like Clippers power forward Montrezl Harrell, Oklahoma City forward Danilo Gallinari and Chicago point guard Kris Dunn. They might not be affordable and some might having their sights set elsewhere, but that’s the kind of depth upgrade the Raptors need to stay where they are.
How do they do it? It will take some persuasion and financial legerdemain to do it, but Ujiri, Webster and the team’s number crunchers are likely up to the task.
Salary cap rules mean Toronto is likely to have the mid-level exception of about $9.2 million (U.S.) and the biannual exception of about $3.7 million to offer free agents. That doesn’t seem like a ton of money for the top-shelf talent but there aren’t many teams with substantial cap room and most of the ones that do are years away from legitimate contention.
Toronto’s track record of winning and organizational consistency might give them an edge. And if a player the Raptors really want gets in a room with Ujiri, coach Nick Nurse and a potential teammate or two, their powers of persuasion should be substantial.
The Raptors did a little housekeeping Thursday, extending qualifying offers to Chris Boucher, Oshae Brissett and Nando de Colo, which makes them restricted free agents and gives the Raptors the chance to match offers any of them get. Toronto did not give a qualifying offer to Malcolm Miller, who now becomes an unrestricted free agent. Things should get more interesting this weekend.
There should no sense of doom and gloom among the fan base, let’s get that straight. At the very worst, a Raptors team with Kyle Lowry, Siakam, Anunoby, Norm Powell, an emerging Matt Thomas and whichever free agent bigs they add won’t be horrible. But it won’t be great and it will need to overachieve while several other teams underachieve.
That’s not out of the realm of possibility — Nurse seems to be able to “coach up” any kind of roster — but it’s a long shot. In this rapidly evolving NBA, moving ahead quickly is much more important than slow and steady growth. What’s great one year might be average the next, depending on what goes on around you.
These are big days for Ujiri and Webster. The third rail of roster construction can be deadly, or it can be the path to smooth sailing.