Can a threat be spotted on social media?
Both Minassian, Zaman made comments online alluding to crimes
Shortly before his rampage in April 2018 that killed 10 people a and injured 16 others, Alek Minassian posted a cryptic Facebook status. “Private (Recruit) Minassian
Infantry 00010, wishing to speak to Sgt 4chan please. C23249161,” read Minassian’s status that afternoon. “The Incel Rebellion has already begun! We will overthrow all the Chads and Stacys! All hail the Supreme Gentleman Elliot Rodger!”
A year later, Markham’s Men-haz Zaman killed four members of his family. He confessed to his crimes with fellow players of the online game “Perfect World Void” after trolling about it for years. Zaman was sentenced to life in prison Nov. 6. Minassian is on trial for driving a van along a Yonge Street sidewalk, killing and a injuring those in his path.
He pleaded not guilty; his defence claims he is not criminally responsible due to a mental disorder.
Both killers made comments alluding to thea violent crimes they t committed on social me- dia, and while the Minassian
trial is ongoing, their social me
dia trails raise questions. Is a social media post or message enough of a warning that something terrible is about to ha
pen? Can someone’s alarming social media activity be enough to alert the authorities?
Had a friend of Minassian’s on Facebook made a call when the status was posted, would the outcome have been different? Experts on risk assessment and the psychology of violent criminals say the answer isn’t straightforward. They say reaching the point of committing a mass violent act is a complex psychological journey, and threats uttered on social media don’t necessarily mean intent.
Minassian’s status made a nod to Elliot Rodger, who killed six and injured 14 in Isla Vista,
Calif., in 2014. Rodger made his murderous intent public in a YouTube video before his at-
tacks, where he said he wanted to punish women for rejecting him.
He also made a reference to “incel” culture — men who feel frustrated by their inability to
find f romantic relationships ora sex. In many online communities, “Chads and Stacys” refer to attractive people who have no problem meeting partners of
the opposite sex.
“There’s a lot of people on the internet in those (incel) groups that are saying very similar things, but don’t go on to commit violence,” said Alasdair
Goodwill, a professor of psychology at Ryerson University with expertise in risk assessment.
“Very rarely is it a directly communicated threat that says,
‘I’m going to do something, on
this day at this time.’ ”
But there are signs to watch for. Goodwill said some perpetrators likely have expressed their act in earlier conversations and other platforms. The key thing to watch for is“last resort
thinking,” t as in someone out- ly indicating they have no options but to act on their vio
lent ideas.
Before committing his crimes, Zaman reportedly detailed his
struggle with depression and thoughts of dropping out of
university with gamers online. When he finally confessed to the murders, no one initially believed him because he would “troll around about this for yyears,” a source told CityNews
last year. One anonymous player did
believe him and alerted police. When there are repeated claims to violent behaviour, Goodwill said alerting any type of support system, whether clergy, a family member, a teacher or a mental health ex
pert, could help identify the is
sue before it’s too late.
“If it concerns you, then it is probably concerning,” he said. “If you see a behavioural change someone, it sort of sticks out.”
But there is a flip side to being hyper- alert on social media that may result in someone being
falsely identified as violent.
Jooyoung Lee, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Toronto with a focu son crime and gun violence,
said the trail violent criminals leave usually exists outside of social media as well, and someone’s social media presence does not tell the whole story.
“We should be careful not to put too much weight on singular posts, even those that contain red-flag language, or seem to be suggestive of violence,” Lee said, adding we can “quick
ly see how this can go awry.” For example, Lee said police have been pointing to a violent lyrics, posts and accompanying YouTube videos from Black men on trial y as evidence of in
tent. But this is a slippery slope, he said, especially if prosecu
tors put too much weight on these posts and lyrics in their quest to convict a suspect. “If we just look at the social media posts, we’re not getting a very clear picture of what their everyday e life is like, and we can make incorrect inferences
about who they are,” Lee said.
He noted it’s important to understand that for mass killers, the fantasy of committing a crime grows over time. There is
a pattern of repeatedly thinking and talking about the intention to kill, and it is imperative to
emphasize a person’s history of commentary on violence versus singular social posts.
Experts add it’s never entirely clear how effective intervention methods are. “If you didn’t intervene, would they have” committed an act of violence? Goodwill asks. “You don’t really know.”
But if an alarming, direct post about an imminent threat comes across your social media feed, it’s wiser to act in some degree — whether it’s contacting authorities, other friends and family of the poster, or a mental health crisis centre for assessment.
“Always err on the side of not trying to hurt that person more,” Goodwill said. But if you believe someone’s post might be a concern, this person will likely get hurt from following through on their violent act.
“So you can always rest assured that you’re actually trying to help,” he said.
“We should be careful not to put too much weight on singular posts, even those that contain red-flag language, or seem to be suggestive of violence.”
JOOYOUNG LEE SOCIOLOGY PROFESSOR