Canada’s numbers set to surge, experts say

More closures, more restrictions, more testing. Especially west of the Atlantic Provinces.

That’s the message Canada’s top health officials sent Friday, just two weeks before Christmas, as they revealed the federal government’s latest modelling numbers for the COVID-19 pandemic show the country remains on a “rapid growth trajectory.”

Amid promising news that Canada is about to receive its first COVID-19 vaccine shipment within days, the government’s new forecast says the country could hit close to 15,000 deaths by Christmas, and a total number of cases of between 531,300 and 577,000.

Canada could also reach 12,000 new cases of COVID-19 a day by early January, followed by increases in hospitalizations and deaths, if current measures are maintained. The current daily average is about 6,500 new cases.

The country is presently grappling with about 73,000 active cases of COVID-19, up from 52,000 just three weeks ago, said chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam, with continuing rapid growth “being driven primarily by the six provinces” west of Atlantic Canada.

“Bending the curve of this resurgence requires immediate, consistent and strong combined efforts of individuals and local authorities,” Tam said at a briefing in Ottawa on Friday.

The forecast numbers are actually lower than what the modelling in November showed, and Tam attributed this to recently implemented public health controls in British Columbia and Manitoba.

“12,000 cases a day is troubling and it’s scary, but it’s a reality,” said Dr. Nitin Mohan, an epidemiologist and partner at ETIO Public Health Consultants. “We’re projected to hit these case counts, but we don’t have to get there.”

Within hours of the briefing in Ottawa, the Ontario government announced it was imposing new restrictions in seven regions, including moving York and Windsor-Essex into lockdown.

The three Prairie provinces — Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba — some of which only recently introduced stronger public health measures, continue to have the highest infection rates, especially in urban areas, Tam said.