Big boost for batting order
Jays’ offence goes from above average to elite with signing of Semien
There are still a lot of questions to be answered on the pitching front, but no matter who ends up taking the mound for the Blue Jays this season figures to be backed by one of Major League Baseball’s top lineups.
Within the span of a week, Toronto’s offence has gone from pretty good to potentially elite. First, it was the signing of star centre-fielder George Springer to a $150-million (U.S.) contract. Then there was Tuesday’s one-year pact with infielder Marcus Semien valued at $18 million, pending a physical.
In Springer, the Jays added the best free agent outfielder available. After missing out on DJ LeMahieu, they added arguably the second most valuable infielder in Semien, an all-star shortstop one season removed from a top-three finish in voting for the American League MVP award. Two division-altering moves that didn’t require prospects, just cash.
Semien’s defensive metrics at shortstop suggest he’s adequate at best with the glove, but he’ll have an easier assignment wherever the Blue Jays play their home games. He’ll likely end up at second base, with Cavan Biggio shifting to third, but it’s possible more moves are coming, which could push Biggio into an everyday super-utility role.
Forget about how the pieces fit for just a minute because that will sort itself out. The upside here isn’t centred around the glove, it’s all about the bat. The San Francisco native is coming off a horrendous season at the plate, when he finished with a .223 average, a .305 on-base percentage and a .679 OPS. But he was one of Oakland’s biggest stars before that and, at age 30, there should still be plenty left in the tank.
Semien’s 12.6 wins above replacement going back to 2018 are higher than anyone in this year’s free-agent class. The bulk of that value came in 2019 when he appeared in all 162 games while hitting .285 with 33 home runs and 92 RBIs. With free agency one year away, he figured to become one of the game’s top earners until last season’s flop.
Instead of a $100-plus million payday, Semien settled for a one-year deal and the chance to do it all over again next winter.
Outside of that MVP-calibre season, Semien has never posted an OPS above .735, which raises questions about whether he was a one-year wonder.
Last year’s stats might back that up, but it’s worth pointing out that, after a two-week slump to start the season, Semien posted a .772 OPS with 15 extra-base hits over the final 39 games. In a full season, the opening stretch is a mere blip; its impact is much bigger across an 80-game schedule.
While the one-year deal isn’t cheap, it comes with little risk.
If Semien bounces back, the Blue Jays have another plus bat and a guy who should benefit from changing positions. If he struggles, the former sixthround pick can’t be any worse than Travis Shaw was last season and he doesn’t come with a long-term commitment. It’s a win-win deal, just like last week’s signing of Yates, who is a candidate to close.
The big unknown, outside of how Semien will perform, is how much money the Blue Jays’ front office has left to work with. Shapiro said in the fall that the Blue Jays would operate “much like last offseason” when they spent approximately $110 million, including an additional $50-plus million on salaries for 2020. They’ve already blown past both markers.
The Jays have signed Springer (six years, $150 million), starter Robbie Ray (one year, $8 million) and relievers Kirby Yates (one year, $5.5 million) and Tyler Chatwood (one year, $3 million). Semien’s $18million agreement give the Jays $56.5 million added in 2021 payroll and $184.5 million in total commitments, not including incentives.
The club’s payroll currently sits around $135 million, including estimates for entrylevel players and with Springer’s $10-million bonus still be factored in.
The everyday lineup appears set but the Jays should be expected to shop outfielder Randal Grichuk and they have enough positional flexibility to keep adding if the appropriate upgrade can be found. There is still a glaring need on the pitching side for at least one more mid-level type starter.
Getting enough quality innings from the pitching staff is going to be challenging, but this team will be a lot of fun to watch. It’s a lineup filled with almost exclusively right-handed hitters with enough upside that it might not matter. There is power, increased plate discipline, a bit more speed and still a whole lot of swing and miss.
Despite last year’s short-lived run to the playoffs, this lineup was above average even before the latest additions. The Jays were seventh in the majors last season with 302 runs. The only AL teams who scored more were the Yankees (315) and the White Sox (306). Since then, the Jays upgraded their roster while New York’s lineup remained mostly untouched and Chicago was focused on pitching.
The Jays have been crowned winners of the off-season before and it didn’t lead to anything other than getting on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Nothing is guaranteed this time around either but the expectations have been raised and, on opening day, they’ll be one of the favourites to make the post-season.
Look out New York and Tampa Bay, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have a lot to smile about these days. The Blue Jays are players again in the AL East and they might not be done adding quite yet.