Don’t make too much of early numbers
The power-play unit has been dominant so far, but we’ve all seen this show before
It’s a question we’ve heard in press boxes through the years: Why don’t great hockey players turn into great hockey analysts?
Every other major sport has a Hall of Famer or two among their most influential media voices, from basketball’s Charles Barkley to football’s Troy Aikman to baseball’s Alex Rodriguez. The NHL alumni who’ve emerged as leading on-air observers, meanwhile — Ray Ferraro and Craig Simpson, to name a couple — generally don’t bring athletic resumés that compare.
Maybe it’s for the best. Witness the latest series of headline-making observations from Wayne Gretzky, the majority owner of hockey’s record book. Gretzky was asked if it’s possible for Edmonton Oilers stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to reel off a 100-point season in the span of this season’s 56-game schedule. Given the Great One’s lifelong cultivation of a public persona that demands he also be the unfailingly Gracious One, you didn’t need to hear his answer to correctly predict it.
“I think they can,” Gretzky told Sportsnet’s Mark Spector.
The correct answer, of course, is: They probably can’t. Scoring 100 points in 56 games will require a pace of 1.79 points per game. Nobody’s scored at a rate better than that since Mario Lemieux managed to do it in a slightly higher-scoring era. So, yes, McDavid had a remarkable 22 points through 11 games heading into Tuesday, a pace of two points a game. And, sure, Draisaitl was only a shade behind him at 21 points. And, yes, they and everyone else in the defence-challenged Canadian division gets a steady dose of the woeful Senators. Still, let’s just say the 100-point-season talk is, more than likely, an overreaction to a hot start.
Early-season outbursts tend to breed such exuberance. A few years back, when McDavid scored a hat trick in the season opener, it was Jaromir Jagr who mused about the possibility of McDavid one day breaking Gretzky’s single-season record of 92 goals.
“I wouldn't be surprised if
someday (McDavid) scored 100 goals and broke (Gretzky’s) record,” Jagr said.
McDavid, it’s worth noting, finished the season with 41 goals. Put Jagr in the Hall of Fame, in other words. Maybe consider somebody else for the broadcast booth.
With that in mind, and with the Maple Leafs idle for a fourday stretch that will end with Thursday night’s home game against the Vancouver Canucks, let’s take a look at a few early-season observations in Leafland that may or may not be overreactions to a small sample size.
The Leafs’ toughness is their power play:
You remember Mike Babcock’s passive-aggressive non-compliment to his Kyle Dubas-constructed roster, which was stacked with so much skill and so little sandpaper. Even with the addition of the grit-injecting likes of Wayne Simmonds and Zach Bogosian, nobody considers the Leafs a physically imposing group. Their power play, on the other hand, which is leading the league with a 43-per-cent conversion rate through their first 10 games, looks downright menacing.
Still, as good as it is — and as good as it ought to be, given Toronto’s investment in its highest-scoring forwards — we’ve seen a similar movie before in previous seasons, wherein the Leafs’ 5-on-4 unit
appeared unstoppable in the early going only to be stopped at a much more regular rate when it mattered. And we’ve seen the chronic problem: As good as the Leafs are with the man advantage, they don’t find themselves wielding it nearly enough. Here’s the alarming stat. Toronto ranked 28th in power-play time heading into Tuesday’s slate of games. If the Leafs are truly going to scare opposing teams, in other words, they’ll need to find a way to draw more penalties.
They’ll also need to take fewer penalties:
So far the Leafs have taken 11 more penalties than they’ve drawn, a considering discrepancy 10 games into the season. Not surprising, then, that they’d spent more time killing penalties than all but three teams. Considering their penalty kill ranks 21st in the league, you can make the case they’re flirting with danger. You can also make the case that, referees being what they are, these things usually even out. Going back to 2016, the Leafs have drawn 1,081 penalties and taken 1,082.
Frederik Andersen has avoided a slow start:
Andersen’s first month is usually his worst month. So the notion that Frederik Andersen emerged from January with a 5-2-1 record has to be a relief. Still, some of Andersen’s other numbers aren’t nearly as impressive.
His save percentage (.892) ranks 44th in the league. Backup Jack Campbell, who is 2-0-0 in two starts, ranks 14th at .923. And though the sample size is small, it’s not hard to see a moment coming soon that the identity of Toronto’s go-to starter isn’t necessarily the red-headed Dane who has commanded the spot without question since 2016. Then again, if this is merely Andersen ramping up toward mid-season form, no one would be shocked to see him reel off a dominant stretch soon.
The Leafs have fixed their defensive woes:
Sure, on the surface, there’s plenty to be excited about. The Leafs, seemingly committed to Sheldon Keefe’s insistence they transform themselves into a harder team to play against, came into Tuesday atop the league standings. They had won five onegoal games. They hadn’t squandered any of the six games they led into the second intermission. And by the measure of conventional counting stats, their 2.90 goals against per game ranked 17th in the league. That’s an improvement from last year, when they ranked 26th in the same category. Still, GM Kyle Dubas has spoken of his interest in the advanced stat known as expected goals. By that measure, Toronto ranked 24th in the league in five-on-five expected-goals
percentage heading into Tuesday. Which isn’t particularly impressive.
Can they get better? The unfailingly Gracious One would surely say: I think they can. There are times Gretzky can’t seem to help himself when it comes to doling out kind words. Continuing this week’s exaltation of McDavid and Draisaitl, No. 99 inevitably drew parallels that don’t exist.
“It’s so similar to myself and Mark (Messier) in that they have two players, a 1 and a 1A. One is as good as the other,” Gretzky said.
Maybe this is why great hockey players can’t be great analysts. The analyst who tells you Draisaitl is as good as McDavid isn’t nearly as delusional than the one who tells you Messier was as good as Gretzky.
Gretzky, to review, is the league’s all-time leading point getter. Messier is third. But Gretzky racked up 970 more career points than Messier in 269 fewer games. Think about that. Gretzky outscored Messier by 970 points. To put that number in perspective, consider that Rocket Richard finished his career with 966 points. In other words, the only thing that separated Gretzky and Messier was the career of a Quebecois deity, give or take a few points. Maybe it’s for the best that hockey leaves its analysis to the mere mortals.