Prepare for the long haul: The pandemic is far from over

The favoured storyline of the pandemic hinges on the virtue of perseverance.

We are told that if we can just keep it up for a few more weeks — the masking, the physical distancing, the lockdowns — we will be able to vaccinate almost everyone.

And once almost everyone has been inoculated, we are told, the coronavirus will have been defeated.

In that it relegates the pandemic to the realm of the temporary, this is an attractive storyline. It suggests that we can eventually return to business as usual.

But what if we can’t? What happens if, despite our best efforts, the pandemic continues?

What happens if we are unable to defeat the coronavirus?

If that’s the case, then the best we can do is figure out a way to live with COVID-19.

In the past, coexistence was the usual human strategy for dealing with epidemics. We could not defeat the Black Plague. But we could learn to live — and die — with it.

Ditto with other plagues, including the deadly disease smallpox.

Then, in the early 19th century, came a breakthrough that enabled us to eventually defeat smallpox — the development of vaccines.

By creating antibodies, vaccines allowed us to use a virus against itself. And they worked. Vaccination defeated polio. It was soon used against influenza and common childhood diseases such as measles.

When COVID-19 hit, the scientific world’s first response was to begin development of a workable vaccine.

But there is one problem with vaccination. It does not always keep up with mutation.

By allowing a virus to change ever so slightly, mutation can result in strains that are resistant to available vaccines.

This is particularly true of influenza, which is why the annual flu shot doesn’t always work: sometimes it is directed against the wrong strains.

We still know little about the COVID-19 virus. But one thing that is becoming clear is its ability to mutate into new strains. These strains, such as the variants first reported in England or South Africa, spread more easily than the standard COVID-19 version. There is some evidence that the so-called South African variant is less vulnerable to at least one of the current vaccines.

If indeed the virus’s ability to mutate is faster than our ability to create new vaccines, then the standard storyline is in real trouble.

If vaccination doesn’t guarantee victory, what do we do?

First, keep on vaccinating anyway. Vaccination on its own may be insufficient. But it is still necessary if anything is to be accomplished.

Second, prepare for the long haul. If the virus is quickly mutating, then there is no room for colour-coded temporary lockdowns.

We have to be prepared for rapid and permanent change.

It’s not enough to close all the barber shops for six weeks. What is needed is a permanent way to let hairdressers work safely.

Similarly, restaurateurs will have to come to terms with the fact that eating out is a luxury the world can no longer afford.

Outdoor patios will not solve their problems. They are being forced back into an older world, where restaurant meals were special and the norm was to eat at home.

Dealing with all of this requires a change in perspective. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau encourages Canadians by saying the nightmare will soon be over.

He is almost certainly wrong. This thing is far from over. Those who think vaccines alone will miraculously solve our woes are whistling into the wind.

Better that we prepare ourselves for a grim future. Because that’s what we are likely to get.