Toronto Star

■ After decline, city sees spike in cases,

Toronto health chief says ongoing drop in deaths shows vaccines’ efficacy

- DAVID RIDER

COVID-19 is spreading faster again in Toronto after a sustained decline, highlighti­ng the need to vaccinate residents as quickly as possible before a surge in the deadly virus.

Dr. Eileen de Villa, the city’s public health chief, told reporters Wednesday new data showed Toronto’s reproducti­ve rate — how many infections each new case is expected to generate — had climbed to 1.1 from 0.81 last week.

“That is certainly not where we want to go, it was dishearten­ing for me to see that,” de Villa said during an online COVID-19 briefing that included notice of cancelled events including, for the second straight year, the Pride parade.

Ontario’s R value was 1.02 according to data website howsmyflat­tening.ca.

Noting any “R value” above one means the pace of virus spread is quickening, de Villa said so-called variants of concern — more transmissi­ble deadly versions of the virus — are likely a factor.

Seventy-two new variant cases in Toronto had been confirmed by Wednesday with many more positive screenings expected to be confirmed as variants.

“The screened positive total marches upward daily and that should be a matter of concern to all of us,” de Villa said, adding one of the confirmed variant cases is a strain first detected in Brazil, while the other 71 are the B.1.1.7 strain that first emerged in the United Kingdom.

Children returning to school after Family Day have likely also contribute­d to virus spread, de Villa said, but added that many school COVID-19 cases involve kids infected outside the school environmen­t.

One important indicator — the number of COVID-19 deaths in Toronto — is continuing to drop, with a single death recorded Wednesday and two on Tuesday. Toronto’s sevenday average for new deaths was 12 in early January.

De Villa said that shows the power of vaccines, with outbreaks and deaths both down significan­tly among vaccinated seniors home residents. Most of the 2,620 Torontonia­ns killed by the virus since last March lived in seniors homes.

“The hope is that the benefits being experience­d now within long-term-care settings and within retirement homes will soon be a benefit that’s experience­d more broadly” in the community, de Villa said.

The Ontario government said Wednesday it will open a website and telephone hotline for

COVID-19 vaccinatio­ns on March 15, with residents over age 80 first in line among those outside seniors homes and health-care settings to get the jab.

Mayor John Tory announced the cancellati­on of in-person public events led by the city or requiring a city permit until July 1, including the Pride parade, the Juno Awards, the Toronto Marathon, Luminato, the Indigenous Arts Festival and all Canada Day festivitie­s.

Organizers needed certainty before signing contracts and hiring staff, Tory said, adding many are offering online alternativ­es to shoulder-to-shoulder celebratio­ns.

Organizers of the end-of-August Canadian National Exhibition, only virtual last year, said they are planning and hoping to host people in 2021 “keeping in mind that we are subject to public health guidelines and government stipulatio­ns.”

Dr. Anna Banerji, an infectious disease specialist at Temerty Faculty of Medicine and Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, said people shouldn’t get “too caught up” in the reproducti­ve number.

The overall number of new COVID-19 cases in Ontario has remained fairly stable for about a week, Banerji said, adding that immunizati­on must happen as quickly as possible.

“The only way we’re going to get out of this pandemic in the next while is vaccinatio­n — that should be the number one priority in Canada today, to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible,” she said.

Ontario’s rollout plan has people under age 60 without any priority status waiting until well into the summer for the vaccine, but officials said Wednesday it’s possible new vaccines and other factors could speed up that plan.

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