Premiers stick toes in waters of a health-care election
Provinces in Canada are fond of telling the big bad federal government to mind its own business.
So it was somewhat unexpected this week to see provincial premiers inserting themselves into the ongoing debate over when and how Canada could be tipped into a federal election as soon as this spring. Technically, this would be Ottawa’s business.
Quebec Premier François Legault, host of the meeting on Thursday between provincial and territorial leaders, opened that door when he laid out the unanimous demand for Justin Trudeau’s government to put big increases for health transfers in the coming budget.
If Trudeau isn’t willing to do it, Legault said, the provinces have other friends in Ottawa who might be more accommodating.
“We have a minority government, so we’ve already met with the representatives of the opposition parties in Ottawa,” Legault said. “I think if we’re not able to settle all the problems in the next budget, we’ll continue.”
It’s not entirely clear what “we’ll continue” means, but the premiers — being political people themselves — would have known what they were doing on Thursday. They were handing the opposition parties a reason to pull the plug on Trudeau’s government over the budget, expected to be delivered in April.
It was Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister who put the election threat right out there, saying he didn’t know why “any prime minister would want to run in the next election on the platform of making wait times any longer.”
Meet the resistance — the 2021 version. When Maclean’s magazine published that 2018 cover photo of provincial players promising to get in Trudeau’s way, the main battle was over climate change and a carbon tax. But Thursday’s ultimatum from the provinces added an electoral twist: give us more money for health care or say goodbye to your minority Parliament.
No one is saying they want a federal election right now and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole told the Star a few weeks ago that he didn’t think the country should go to the polls until we were well into recovery from the pandemic.
Friday’s news of an accelerated rollout for vaccines this spring, however, means that day could come sooner than fall. An April budget, a week or two of consternation over what’s not in there — namely more for health care — and Trudeau could find himself with a May or June election.
The opposition parties could say, “Well, we didn’t want an election, but provinces wanted more for health care, and we’re doing this for the good of the country.”
The provinces, to be precise, are demanding that Ottawa increase its share of the national health budget to 35 per cent, which would mean about $28 billion more every year.
Legault said that he’s been talking to opposition leaders in the Commons and is pretty sure that the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois support the provincial demand, both in spirit and in dollar amounts. The federal Conservatives are a little vague on the dollars part.
“If I remember correctly, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois are ready to support us, including the amount of $28 billion,” Legault said. “The Conservative party is ready to support the principle of increasing transfers without conditions, but they haven’t settled what would be the amount.”
That’s sort of what the Liberals are promising too, by the way — more money, but the exact amount still up in the air, and definitely not immediately. Trudeau said as much on Friday, when asked about the premiers’ remarks of the day before. After the pandemic, the prime minister said, “it is obvious that there will be a need for greater financing of health care in this country, including the Canada Health Transfer.”
The question of “conditions” is a bit more murky. Trudeau’s government has promised pharmacare and national standards for long-term care, which the provinces have described as an intrusion into their business. O’Toole’s Conservatives appear to side with the provinces on this score.
But everybody is sticking their nose into everyone’s politics these days, as Thursday’s news conference demonstrated.
Effectively, the provinces have written a script for the opposition parties to trigger a defeat of the federal government, if the Conservatives, New Democrats and the Bloc and the Greens decide they’re in the mood for that this spring. Right now, none of the federal parties say they’re ready to hit the campaign trail, but they clearly have some friends in high places in the provinces who are telling them how they could pull it off.
A health-care election would be a new thing in Canada but it would not unimaginable, given the past year. Then again, a federal election provoked by the provinces would also be new, given how much they’ve insisted that Ottawa mind its own business.