Rielly gets his best shot at Norris
Being paired with Brodie has been a major assist in race
Morgan Rielly’s inclusion in this season’s Norris Trophy discussion underlines how much he’s contributed to a Maple Leafs team off to one of the best starts in franchise history.
But Rielly has been mentioned as a candidate for top defenceman honours in previous years and never been a finalist, which also highlights how difficult it is to win.
With the Leafs first in the North Division and mid-season arriving next week, Rielly’s game has drawn attention around the league. Other top contenders include Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes, who leads all NHL defencemen in scoring with 21 points, and Montreal veteran Shea Weber, who has never won the award.
For Rielly to win, he would almost certainly have to finish among the top five scorers among blueliners. He enters Saturday’s game in Vancouver with 19 points in 25 games, tied for third with Washington’s John Carlson, who was runnerup to Norris winner Roman Josi of Nashville last season.
While production is always a factor in the voting, Rielly will also have to live up to the definition of the award, intended to reward the defenceman who “demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.”
Rielly did not receive a single first-place vote in the 2018-19 race despite posting careerhigh offensive numbers (20 goals, 52 assists), so it isn’t all about scoring. Calgary’s Mark Giordano, 35 at the time, won it with current Leaf T.J. Brodie as his defence partner.
Rielly’s defensive metrics may have factored into that vote, but he’s playing a leading role this season in the Leafs’ defensive improvement — paired with Brodie.
Most notably, among the NHL’s elite blueliners, only Rielly and Tampa’s Victor Hedman are outperforming their expected goals against when they’re on the ice at five-on-five. In data compiled by Sportlogiq, Rielly’s expected goals against comes in at 2.53 per game, while his actual goals against is 1.86. Hedman, the 2018 Norris winner, shows a 2.05 expected goals against vs. an actual 1.63.
Several top defencemen — including Josi, Hughes and San Jose’s Erik Karlsson — have actual goals against numbers higher than the expected figure.
Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said Rielly has answered a challenge defensively.
“I think he’s been really good. He’s been playing with a lot of assertiveness, offensively and defensively,” Keefe said. “Offensively, he’s at his best when he’s using his legs, skating by people, and getting into the rush, and giving us the extra option coming out of our zone. Those things are what makes him who he is, and we like that about his game and what he brings to our team.
“Defensively, I think closing on people in our own zone, maintaining a tighter gap, those are two things we have been talking a lot about and he’s been committed to that.”
Nonetheless, winning the Norris will be difficult.
At the moment, Josi has the edge in offence-based metrics: second in the NHL in five-onfive shots per game (2.23) and first in offensive zone posses- sion, total possession, zone en- tries and zone exits.
While Rielly ranks among the
top five in several of those categories, offensive success only goes so far with the voters. A year ago, Carlsson put up 75 points, one of the 10 highest totals by a defenceman in the last 15 years, and still lost.
He lost support with his defensive play: on the ice for three or more goals against seven times, and four goals against three times.
Part of that can be attributed to playing in the top pairing and facing the toughest opposing forwards in all situations, which Rielly can relate to.
What’s changed for Rielly this season is the other half of that top pair.
Giordano flourished offensively with Brodie in Calgary: 32 goals in 143 games with him, 25 goals in 163 games without. And after just 22 games with Rielly, Brodie says his new partner is “a lot like (Giordano) ... They both can do it all.”
At age 26 with seven-plus seasons under his belt, Rielly is the longest tenured Leaf and might have his best shot at the Norris, after a tough 2019-20 season in which he played through injuries.
“I feel like it keeps getting better and better, just the way he keeps bringing it every year,” teammate Mitch Marner told the Star about Rielly. “Just how he tries to be difficult to play against every night.
“But when he gets out there, his game doesn’t change much. He’s still the same guy, making plays on the offensive side of the puck, on the defensive side, making the right plays with his stick, smart in our own zone. Just a lot of fun to watch.”