Tight lockdown expected soon for Toronto area

‘Even the summer is in jeopardy now’ as variants surge, says researcher

With COVID-19 infections surging, and younger adults filling up intensive care units, the Toronto area is almost certainly heading back into tight lockdown, predicts a member of Ontario’s science advisory table.

“I’d be shocked if we were not in lockdown shortly before or after this weekend,” Dr. Nathan Stall, a researcher and geriatrician at Mount Sinai Hospital.

“There are many things in jeopardy — not just people’s lives and health-care capacity. The school year is in jeopardy, businesses are in jeopardy if they’re facing a prolonged lockdown. Everyone is going to suffer. Even the summer is in jeopardy now — day camps and overnight camps for kids.”

Stall says the Ontario government has been too quick to lift restrictions after past lockdowns and the stay-at-home order imposed in January, quickly erasing gains and setting the stage for inevitable longer, harder closures when cases spike again.

More contagious variants of concern are now dominant and the proportion of COVID-19 patients in intensive care under age 60 is surging along with overall ICU admissions, the science advisory table reported Monday.

The rollout of the big hope to reverse virus spread — vaccines — has been bumpy, largely because of uneven supply but also due to slow uptake among some seniors, a pattern that puzzles Toronto officials.

When it was announced that all Torontonians over 80 could be vaccinated at city clinics, there was an initial rush of appointments that has subsided, and then Mayor John Tory had to plead with people to make appointments.

That pattern repeated when the age was dropped to 75, and again to an extent for the current cutoff of those turning 70 this year.

Starting Wednesday, both York Region and Halton Region are dropping their vaccine threshold to those turning 65 or older this year.

Stall said the Ontario government must do a better job of aiming vaccine supply at the hardest-hit parts of the province, adding Quebec has done a better job at that.

In Montreal, where age eligibility has dropped to 60-plus, more than 20 per cent of residents have had at least one dose. For Torontonians, that figure is about 12 per cent.

Given that more adults in their 20s to 50s are becoming critically ill, “perhaps we need to have larger eligible agebands so we aren’t always scrambling to find people to get their shot,” said Timothy Chan, a University of Toronto professor of mechanical and industrial engineering.

Chan said he’s “quite concerned” that upcoming social gatherings will make even more critical the need to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible.

With COVID-19 infections surging, Khan said if there isn’t another lockdown, virus-fatigued Torontonians would have to live with higher risk of serious illness.

“It’s tough — it’s like this generation’s world war,” he said. “We’ll get through it but it’s a long process.”