There’s still a hole in net
The Leafs improved at the deadline, and think injured Frederik Andersen will return this season. But what if he doesn’t? There’s no backup with the playoff experience they need — Big Save Dave included
It only made sense that the Maple Leafs, in one of a flurry of pre-deadline moves, acquired netminder David Rittich from the Calgary Flames.
Goaltending insurance was a non-negotiable need in Toronto, and Rittich is a credible enough piece of it. He was an all-star just last season. As Toronto GM Kyle Dubas was saying on Monday, the goaltender known as Big Save Dave, when he’s on, has shown the ability to steal a game — which isn’t something the Leafs have often said about their goalies over the past while.
But as Monday’s trade deadline came and went, with the Leafs having bolstered their forward ranks with the likes of Nick Foligno and Riley Nash while rounding out the defensive corps with serviceable lefty Ben Hutton, there remained an obvious point of unease around the club. Sure, they’re in the exciting midst of the most promising season in a couple of decades, sitting second in the league points standings heading into Monday’s game against the Canadiens. And yes, Dubas checked off the important boxes of his pre-deadline shopping list, and in doing so solidified the Leafs as the overwhelming favourites to win this one-off Canadian division.
But it can’t thrill management that the reason they required goaltending insurance is because they’re currently lacking any sort of goaltending guarantee.
The murkiness around the status of longtime No. 1 Frederik Andersen didn’t get any clearer even after Dubas answered numerous questions on the subject. Suffice it to say it’s not an optimal subplot as the Leafs stand a little more than a month away from the post-season.
All we can say for sure is that it’s been more than three weeks since Andersen has been seen on an ice surface, a period in which the Leafs have made reference to Andersen attending medical appointments and subsequent followups in the days since it was announced he’d reaggravated an undisclosed lower-body injury.
“There’s no timeline to the injury,” was head coach Sheldon’s Keefe’s latest update last week. “It’s really just a matter of Fred being comfortable with where he’s at and how he’s feeling.”
On Monday, though, Dubas said it was still up to Toronto’s medical team to give Andersen the “green light” to return to action. Which speaks to the murkiness of the situation.
No matter who’s making the decision, Dubas repeated more than once that it was the club’s intention to make sure Andersen is “100 per cent” before he returns.
“That’s really all we’re focused on at this point, is making sure we get through the stretch and give him the chance to be at absolute 100 per cent and be ready to roll come playoff time,” Dubas said.
And while there’s been plenty of speculation that — with the Leafs now possessed of Jack Campbell, Rittich and Michael Hutchinson — Andersen has played his last game as a Maple Leaf, Dubas said it’s simply not the case.
“I’m convinced that Freddie is going to play for the Leafs for sure (before the end of the season),” the GM said.
That doesn’t mean Andersen will be available anytime soon. And it doesn’t answer a couple of questions that are fundamental to assessing the Leafs’ playoff chances.
One, of course, is whether or not he’ll be healthy in time for next month’s post-season — which seems likely, if not a sure thing. And two, which is the tougher question: Even if he’s healthy, will he be any good?
Andersen is suffering through the worst statistical season of his career. And when you examine the big picture of his time in Toronto, it’s not difficult to pinpoint a moment when things changed.
It was a couple of seasons back, during Andersen’s third year with the club, that Andersen took himself out of the lineup for an eight-game stretch to attempt to rest a groin injury. At the time, he was clearly overworked. Blame Mike Babcock’s penchant for riding starters hard. Blame management’s failures in securing more credible options as Andersen’s No. 2. Heck, blame the big four earners on the club for eating up 50 per cent of the salary cap and leaving scraps for such luxuries. Whatever, Andersen can make the case that the Leafs essentially drove him into the ground in his first 2 ⁄ seasons in Toronto
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2 — so much so that he had to insist he be given time to rest a groin injury that he feared would plague him when it mattered most in the playoffs.
There’s more to it, without a doubt. But here’s what the numbers tell you. In the twoplus years since he returned from that groin injury, Andersen hasn’t brought anywhere near the same level of performance to the crease. Previous to the injury, he’d run up a .919 save percentage — sixth-best among NHL goaltenders who’d played at least 100 games over that span. In his 105 games since, he’s been a vastly inferior puckstopper. Over that more recent span, his save percentage is a below-average .907. This season it’s .897.
Chalk it up to the gruelling toll exacted on the NHL’s hardest-working goaltender over that span. And now, in a contract year, you can understand why Andersen might feel how, in sacrificing his body for the good of the team, he’s done a disservice to himself.
A while back, Andersen acknowledged that, for all his grappling with bodily health this season, part of his struggle is now mental. His confidence is missing. And one wonders if the space between now and the playoffs leaves enough time for such a crucial rediscovery.
Maybe none of this will ultimately matter. Maybe Campbell’s incredible underdog story will continue to unfold like a fairy tale. Maybe, if Campbell can’t handle the load for reasons of health or performance — and he’s missed games due to injury in three separate stretches this season — Big Save Dave will be a worthy stand-in.
When it comes to goaltending, not much is ever for sure. But we do know this: Rittich and Campbell have one thing in common. Neither has ever won a playoff game. Andersen, to the contrary, has won 27 of them in 53 tries. He’s got a career .916 save percentage in the post-season.
If the Leafs are hoping to go deep in the playoffs, their best chance, by far, lies with Andersen taking them there. But let’s just say Andersen isn’t the only one lacking confidence in the notion that, when the moment arrives, he’ll be the man.