Game’s top shooter could offer solution to power-play woes
It’s been a perplexing descent from feast to famine.
How can it be that the Maple Leafs’ power play, once sublime, is suddenly beyond subpar? How can the team that ripped off a league-leading 15 power-play goals in its first 12 games have precisely one power-play goal in its most recent 16. That is a ghastly 1-for-38 stretch that’s made Toronto’s insanely skilled roster look absurdly incompetent. When you consider the power play has also allowed three short-handed goals over that stretch, it’s as though the owners of a once-lethal arsenal have suddenly turned the metaphorical weapon on themselves.
Speaking of self-induced trauma, head coach Sheldon Keefe has lately insisted the problem is “100 per cent” mental — paralysis by analysis, a team overthinking its underperformance.
Zach Hyman, a power-play regular who is becoming the team’s calm voice of reason, figures it’s time they go back to basics.
“Getting pucks towards the net and creating chaos and outnumbering them at the net,” Hyman suggested the other day. “I think we’re a confident group. We’ve got elite, elite players. So it’s just a matter of time.”
Wise words, for sure. Maybe it is a matter of time. But here’s another theory no player would ever propose: Maybe it’s a matter of ice time.
If I’m coaching the Leafs, the solution is simple: I put Auston Matthews on the ice when the power play starts, and I don’t take him off until it’s all but over. Matthews stays on the ice for 90 per cent of my powerplay minutes.
If the Leafs are copying the Tampa Bay Lightning with their roster moves, after all, why not copy the league’s deadliest power plays with their player deployment. Alex Ovechkin has been on the ice for 93 per cent of Washington’s man-advantage minutes this season. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have been on the ice for 89 and 87 per cent of Edmonton’s, respectively. Maybe it’s just a coincidence that the Capitals and Oilers rank second and third in the NHL in power-play percentage this season, or that the Oilers, playing McDavid and Draisaitl a similar percentage last season, were the league’s No. 1 unit.
As it is, Matthews has been on the ice for just 70 per cent of Toronto’s man-advantage minutes this season. In the eight most recent games, that number has been closer to 60 per cent. While Keefe has been decreasing Matthews’ share of the minutes, he ought to be increasing it. Yet Keefe persists with a two-unit system that clearly isn’t producing results.
“We like what it does in terms of the competitiveness of the two units competing against each other, the fact that we can remain more fresh, and have more urgency to the things that we do,” Keefe said earlier this year.
Internal competition is great. But are we really still holding a run-off to determine Toronto’s most dangerous scoring threat? Clearly not. Since arriving in the league, Matthews has scored more evenstrength goals than anyone, not just on the Leafs, but on any other team — that’s including the great Ovechkin.
Ovechkin has scored more overall goals during that span, mind you, because he’s been more prolific on the power play. He has 72 power-play goals compared to Matthews’ 46.
There’s a clear reason for that disparity. Since Matthews arrived in the NHL, Ovechkin has been on the ice for 1,501 power-play minutes to Matthews’s 862. So sure, Ovechkin has scored roughly 60 per cent more power-play goals than Matthews over that span. Funny how he’s also been on the ice for roughly 60 per cent more power-play minutes.
That’s not a skill gap; it’s an opportunity chasm. Part of that’s Mike Babcock’s fault; he played Matthews on the power play less than Keefe. Maybe Keefe is worried about wearing Matthews out — a fair argument if he was giving No. 34 heavy minutes on the penalty kill, an early-season brainwave that hasn’t panned out.
The other part of the problem is Toronto’s perennial inability to earn power plays. The top penalty-drawing team in the league, the Colorado Avalanche, are averaging 6:09 of man-advantage time a game. The 27th-ranked Leafs average 4:28. Matthews, as a result, ranks 58th in power-play ice time this season. Which makes his nine power-play goals — tied for fourth in the league heading into Wednesday — all the more remarkable.
Don’t get it wrong. There are other problems with Toronto’s special teams (and the penalty kill, which has allowed a goal in three straight games and ranks 22nd in the league, is among them).
You can argue the Leafs are too predictable at 5-on-4. During the recent 1-for-38 slump, for instance, they’ve had 37 per cent of their powerplay shots blocked, compared to just 26 per cent before, according to research by Sportlogiq.
You can make the case they simply need to hit the freaking net more often. During the slump they’ve missed it on more than half their powerplay shots — a whopping 58 per cent — compared to 45 per cent in previous games.
You can lay out an argument that, outside of Hyman and Wayne Simmonds, the Leafs are not particularly equipped to create that net-front chaos Hyman was talking about — the kind that produces dirty goals from high-danger areas.
How do you convince a bunch of finesse-first artistes to ditch the Globetrotters act for the not-so-glamourous grind game? Maybe you point out to them that, during the current slump, they’ve been averaging 0.99 power-play shots from the slot per game — one measly slot shot — compared to 1.44 power-play slot shots previous to the dry spell. So they’ve gone about it more simply at times.
There does appear to be some internal awareness that Toronto’s long-time habit of passively probing the perimeter rather than attacking the heart of the ice is hurting the cause.
As captain John Tavares was saying the other day: “We need to be a little crisper, get the puck and put the opponent on their heels.”
Attack mode, indeed, is the correct mode. But if I’m attacking, I’ve got Matthews out there every precious chance I get.