‘Unfortunately, the situation is dire’
Provincewide curfew ‘unlikely,’ but Ford government expected to introduce another round of COVID restrictions,
The pandemic will get worse before it gets better.
After that grim warning from public health officials, Premier Doug Ford is set to impose the third set of new COVID-19 restrictions in three weeks, including further limits on which businesses and industries can stay open.
While Ford’s cabinet met for hours Thursday and discussed a range of options, senior government officials said a provincewide curfew was “unlikely.”
But with new infection modelling from the government’s science advisers coming Friday that will forecast rates could triple or quadruple if things continue at the current pace, the premier will announce new moves in hopes of curbing the spread.
“Unfortunately, the situation is dire,” associate chief medical officer Dr. Barbara Yaffe said Thursday as new infections, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions all set new records, and more vaccinations clinics closed temporarily because of a lack of supply from the federal government.
“Remember what things were like last spring … and what the streets were like? They were pretty much empty,” Yaffe said. “They’re not empty these days. We have to go back to that.”
Even though Ontario has been under a four-week “stay at home” order since April 8 and schools are closed indefinitely, Solicitor General Sylvia Jones agreed more has to be done.
“All options are on the table,” Jones told reporters at Queen’s Park.
“Look, this is serious. People are dying out there,” she said, imploring Ontarians to get vaccinated if they are eligible, wear masks when out in public, keep a two-metre distance from others and limit shopping trips.
Ministers have been shown the alarming infection modelling, which will be released publicly Friday.
Cabinet will meet Friday to finalize the next round of measures.
There were a record 4,736 new COVID-19 infections reported Thursday and 7,639 Ontarians have died since the start of the pandemic 13 months ago.
In the past week, there has been a 36 per cent surge in new cases.
Asked about the potential for a curfew, similar to what has been in effect in Quebec for weeks, Jones stressed there are challenges with enforcement.
“I am concerned about the riots in Montreal,” she said, referring to violent unrest in that city last weekend.
Under Quebec rules in certain lockdown zones — such as Montreal and Laval — the curfew extends from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. It is loosened slightly in other regions and goes from 9:30 p.m. to 5 a.m. Scofflaws face fines of up to $6,000.
There are numerous exemptions there, including for homeless people, pet owners walking dogs and essential workers.
A senior government official, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations, emphasized that the demographics in Ontario and Quebec differ.
“It’s irresponsible not to look at everything, but at this point a provincewide curfew is unlikely,” the insider said.
Cabinet was, however, considering further restrictions to which workplaces can open.
Potential measures include closing construction sites and some manufacturing and additional limits on which shops and services can open, as well as more curbs on events such as weddings and funerals.
But a prominent infection control epidemiologist said it’s too late for new restrictions to have any immediate effect because the dangerous trends are so well established.
“It’s going to get worse before it gets better,” said Colin Furness at the University of Toronto. “We can’t tweak our way out of this.”
He joined opposition parties in saying Ford ignored modelling from his own science advisers that showed Ontario would be in a bad situation without stronger protections in the face of highly contagious and deadlier variants of the virus now dominating the province.
“They had information back in February that has come true, quite frankly,” said NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.
“I’m terrified,” Horwath said in reference to concerns from inside the hospital system that ICUs could be overwhelmed soon.
“The government is always … two steps behind this virus,” Liberal House Leader John Fraser told reporters.
Green Leader Mike Schreiner urged the government to act without delay to protect essential workers, whose workplaces are a key source of spread, with better personal protective equipment and provincial paid sick days.
“There are many workplaces where workers have to go to work, whether there’s a curfew or not … and the premier refuses to put measures in place to protect those workers,” he said.
On April 1, science table cochair Steini Brown of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health warned Ontario could hit 6,000 new infections daily by the end of April without stronger measures, and 800 COVID-19 patients in intensive care units.
On Thursday, the government reported 659 patients in ICUs, an increase of 17 from the previous day, and 442 on ventilators.
Back in February, Brown had warned the Ford government “there’s little room for error” in avoiding a third wave that could be worse than the first two.
“There will be little time to react quickly because of how fast the variants spread,” he said at the time.
Furness said the increasing pace of vaccine shipments in the coming weeks offer reasons for hope, but the recent spike in infection levels means Ontarians are facing a longer, tougher spring than was anticipated just a few weeks ago.
“I had been optimistic that April was going to be an ugly month, and that things were going to turn sunny in May,” the epidemiologist said.
“I don’t see how we’re going to have a sunny May now … I worry about refrigerator trucks parked outside hospitals,” he said, referring to the spectre of mobile morgues.
The Canadian Civil Liberties Association (CCLA), meanwhile, warned “there is no evidence that a curfew would help with the public health crisis we are facing.
“We do know that a curfew would empower police to stop and question people for no reason. Those already subject to disproportionate police scrutiny are likely to be the targets,” said the CCLA’s Cara Zwibel.
“A curfew is not about health but about government control. Imposing a curfew is an admission that the government has run out of ideas. It is an unnecessary and disproportionate measure that is likely to do more harm than good,” she said.
“We should learn from Quebec’s experiment with a curfew. There is no evidence it worked in driving down case numbers and what was supposed to be a four-week shock treatment has turned into three months with no end in sight. Let’s not go down the same road.”