No-hitters are fun, but fans prefer hits
There have been a lot of signature moments during the Blue Jays’ 45 years of existence.
Joe Carter’s walk-off homer to win the 1993 World Series. Roberto Alomar lifting both arms into the air after going deep off Dennis Eckersley in the 1992 American League Championship Series. Jose Bautista’s bat flip heard ’round the world.
George Bell collapsing to his knees after the Jays won their first division title in 1985. Mike Timlin fielding a bunt from Otis Nixon as a World Series banner flew north of the border for the first time in majorleague history seven years later.
And then there’s Junior Felix taking a few steps back in 1990 to catch the fly ball that would complete Dave Stieb’s nohitter, the culmination of a 12-year journey that captivated a fan base. Stieb had come close four times before, but until that Sept. 2 afternoon in Cleveland he had never reached the elusive milestone.
The moment deserved celebration because it was so rare. Stieb was the first Jays pitcher to toss a no-hitter. More than 30 years later, he’s still the only name on that list. But while Stieb’s former team has yet to replicate his success, no-hitters are becoming increasingly common, which has taken some of the shine away from what used to be considered a historic accomplishment.
There have been six official no-hitters thrown in the majors this season. Two occurred this week alone, with Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull tossing one vs. Seattle on Tuesday night and New York’s Corey Kluber finishing off the Texas Rangers the following day.
This season’s tally would be even higher if Madison Bumgarner’s seven-inning no-hitter during a doubleheader against the Miami Marlins counted. Seven also happens to be the record for no-hitters in a season, done three times before in 1990, 1991 and 2012. This year, the league is on pace for 20.
No-hitters are still fun to watch, but the rate at which they are happening exposes a bigger issue. With so much emphasis in today’s game being put on launch angles and exit velocities, more hitters are taking an all-or-nothing approach into the batter’s box than ever before and it can be seen in the numbers.
Big-league hitters entered play on Thursday batting .236, the lowest average on record. A .312 on-base percentage is the lowest since 1972, and a .393 slugging percentage is the lowest in seven years. Meanwhile, hitters are striking out at record levels with a team average of 8.98 per game.
“There are pitchers with tremendous stuff now that are utilizing increased spin rates and finding ways to do things with the baseball that they probably wouldn’t do otherwise,” Jays pitching coach Pete Walker explained Thursday.
“I don’t think it’s a trend that’s going to stop, to be honest with you. As long as batting averages are low, if you can keep a team in the ballpark, if you can keep them from hitting home runs, you got a chance to throw a no-hitter on any given night.”
The lack of contact has been a problem for a while.
In 2018, there were more strikeouts than hits for the first time in MLB history. It has happened every year since, including the first seven weeks of 2021 which has seen teams average 7.98 hits per game. Only the 1908 season saw fewer.
It wasn’t that long ago when a .250 batting average was enough to put a hitter’s job in jeopardy; these days it’s well above average. The Mariners, who have been no-hit twice this season, are batting .198 and the league’s swing-and-miss percentage has risen approximately 3.5 per cent in the last five years alone.
There are a lot of reasons. Pitchers are throwing harder than at any point in MLB history, with the average fastball velocity approximately two m.p.h. faster than it was 15 years ago. The league’s batting average for balls in play has dipped to .287, tied for its lowest since 1992, which can be partially explained by defensive shifts and the increased rate of fly balls.
Then there’s the evolving role of pitchers. Teams are hesitant to allow their starters to pitch deep into games, increasingly aware their performance begins to dip the third time through a lineup. Almost every club has a stable of relievers who reach upper-90s velocity. Managers pay close attention to matchups.
That helps explain the overall lack of hits, but it doesn’t explain the no-hitters.
Hard-throwing relievers aren’t coming into those games. Wade Miley and Bumgarner — who both got through an outing this season without allowing a hit — aren’t the type to light up a radar gun, at least not anymore.
“I think it’s still historic,” Walker said of tossing a nohitter. “Until something dramatically changes, if there are 24 no-hitters this year, that might change my thinking a little bit. I think it’s just a little bit crazy, initially this season, with the no-hitters. I’m curious to see how it plays out over the rest of the season. If they continue at this trend, then maybe. Maybe it will lose its lustre a little bit, but I have a feeling at the end of the year there won’t be as many as we think there’s going to be.”
It’s worth pointing out the offence should pick up as the year goes on. Historically, the cold weather in April leads to the lowest output of any month.
Pitchers are often ahead of the hitters early in the year, with position players requiring more patience to get their timing down. There have been signs of that already with the league average trending up from .232 in April.
But the current number is still a tick below what it was in 1968. At the end of that year, there was so much concern about offence that the mound was lowered and the strike zone was shrunk. Similar outside-the-box thinking might be required this time around.
One of MLB consultant Theo Epstein’s ideas, which will be experimented with in the Atlantic League, is moving the mound back by a foot. Others have suggested banning the shift.
The lack of contact is making the game duller. Fans are becoming increasingly used to seeing their favourite lineup limp through games with a few hits and double-digit strikeouts. As exciting as no-hitters are, they aren’t enough to make up for everything else.
The old advertising slogan used to be “Chicks dig the long ball.” These days, viewers probably wouldn’t mind if a few singles and doubles were mixed in as well.