Guerrero looks like a contender
Stats so far have him outpacing Donaldson’s MVP season in 2015,
“There’s no challenge too great for him. He embraces them and enjoys that.” JAYS GM ROSS ATKINS
ON VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.
The awards talk was inevitable, given Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s start to the season.
Just past the quarter-mark of what is looking like the 22-yearold first baseman’s highly anticipated breakout year, the chatter is already churning.
As soon-to-be all-star? Many are already pencilling Guerrero in. An MVP by year’s end? With Mike Trout out six to eight weeks with a Grade 2 calf strain, and in spite of everyone being in awe of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ two-way star, some dare to dream and campaign on Guerrero’s behalf.
And why not? The last Blue Jays position player to earn an all-star nod was Justin Smoak in 2017. The last Jays player to be named the American League’s most valuable player was Josh Donaldson in 2015. Compare their offensive starts in those seasons to the way Guerrero has taken off in 2021 and it is the youngster who leads the pack, almost across the board.
Heading into play Friday, Guerrero was in the top five in myriad stats: tied for first in wins above replacement (WAR), as calculated by FanGraphs; second in weighted runs created plus (wRC+); third in weighted on-base average (wOBA), on-base plus slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. The list goes on.
Guerrero’s numbers through the first 42 games of the season also bested nearly all the stats Donaldson and Smoak put up over the same time frame in their best years.
Donaldson matched the number of doubles Guerrero hit, with 10 apiece, and Smoak logged one more triple — yes, you read that right — than either of his counterparts, but Guerrero overwhelmingly leads the charge, with the added weapons of elite walk and strikeout rates.
Even when Guerrero’s current stats are slotted into the early- season leaderboards of those years past, he generally lands ahead of his former organization mates.
The top of the leaderboard was more competitive in 2017, when Smoak was vying for his lone all-star nod, and Guerrero’s rankings across baseball would be lower in some areas, like 13th in slugging percentage compared to today’s fourthplace ranking and eighth in OPS rather than third.
But when it comes to his 2.6 WAR, Guerrero would be leading the way at the 42-game mark in all three seasons.
Still, it’s only 42 games. How consistent Guerrero can remain at the plate will be key to his bid for honours, particularly if he wants to nab Toronto’s first MVP nod in six years. Guerrero’s shortest slumps of the season — and we’re using the term lightly here — came when he went hitless in three games (April 17-20 and May 6-8). Even in those games, Guerrero contributed with five walks and four runs.
In a 162-game schedule, only the second time Guerrero is navigating a full-length bigleague season in his career, there are bound to be longer cold streaks than that.
Smoak, for example, had al- ready navigated one such valley in the first 42 games of his all- star 2017 season, starting his year with a .208/.240/.292 slash line and more strikeouts (eight) than hits (five). Donaldson was managing the frustration of underwhelming team performances through May 2015.
“I can only control what I do, the guy beside me can only control what they do ... This isn’t the try league. This is the get-it done league. Eventually they’re going to find people who are going to get it done,” Donaldson said in a memorable quote that month, not long before Toronto’s then general manager, Alex Anthopoulos, made a series of trades at the midsummer deadline that charted a path to the playoffs that year.
Guerrero has yet to hit any such roadblocks. He has also managed to stay healthy and in games, thanks to improved conditioning this off-season.
But what Guerrero has around him already that neither Smoak nor Donaldson had a quarter of the way through their successful seasons is a team full of offensive firepower. Toronto held a 23-19 record going into play Friday night against the Tampa Bay Rays. The 2015 and 2017 iterations of the Jays were 18-24 at the 42game mark.
The guys around Guerrero have so far shown they’re not leaving it all up to him, taking some of the pressure off their star to carry the weight of Toronto’s offence — though he is up to the task, when necessary.
Managing the lows that inevitably crop up over the course of a long year will be critical to Guerrero’s prizes, as will how he continues to perform in the field. But part of the Jays’ likability this season — they’re the kind of up-and-coming team that fits nicely into an all-star or MVP narrative — is the notion that the team can outhit its misgivings when necessary. It may not be a bad approach for Guerrero to take to achieving individual honours, either.
“There’s no challenge too great for him,” general manager Ross Atkins said of Guerrero’s competitive spirt last week. “He embraces them and enjoys that.”