Report details virus’s toll on universities, colleges

Drop in admissions could result in $2.5B shortfall nationally, StatsCan says

In addition to cancelling orientation weeks, campus club activities, and forcing students and teachers to resort to online learning platforms, the pandemic has taken a huge financial toll on Ontario universities and colleges.

A Statistics Canada report is projecting a significant drop in admissions, both domestic and international, which could translate into a $1.7-billion shortfall for Ontario’s post-secondary institutions in the 2020-21 year — the largest loss in Canada. Nationwide, the damage could total $2.5 billion.

The research paper published Wednesday studied the financial impact of COVID-19 on universities nationwide. It outlines four different scenarios for post-secondary institutions, based on three factors: a decline in international student enrolment, variations in domestic student registration, and government funding.

In the most “pessimistic” scenario, the researchers projected Canadian universities could have seen enrolment decreases of 20.1 per cent in domestic students and 21.8 per cent in international students, creating a $2.5 billion revenue loss.

In the most “optimistic” scenario, revenue loss at a national level could reach a total of $438 million, if domestic student enrolment remains stable, and international student enrolment decreases by 12.5 per cent.

The most recent study permit data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada is used as an estimate for international student enrolment. The scenarios also incorporate an influx of $450 million in federal funding for research announced by Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED).

Steve Orsini, the chief executive officer of the Council of Ontario Universities, said the council is “still reviewing the report” and is not able to comment on the results yet. However, based on a council analysis, the pandemic has hurt universities by more than $1 billion in total costs and lost revenue as of spring 2021, he said.

“Increased provincial funding to universities will ensure the quality of programs, services and supports for students is protected,” Orsini added.

Provincial grants are the main source of revenue for universities, but have declined (as a percentage of total revenue) over the past two decades, the report says. The decrease in government funding leaves post-secondary institutions relying predominantly on tuition hikes and international students — who pay on average four times more in tuition fees than domestic students, with their tuition increasing at a faster rate.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Colleges and Universities said the provincial government provides more than $5 billion annually to publicly assisted schools. To help offset COVID impacts, the ministry provided an additional $106.4 million to the sector, on top of $50 million to support the development of a virtual learning strategy, the spokesperson added.

The Ontario government cut tuition fees for domestic students by 10 per cent in September 2019, with a tuition freeze in place for the 2020-21 and 202122 academic years.