THE BIG ISSUES
The race is on, but what’s really at stake in this federal campaign? We dive into four topics that may decide who gets your vote,
OTTAWA—It’s dominated our lives for the past 17 months. But will the COVID-19 pandemic — and the federal government’s response to it — determine how Canadians vote?
Federal parties are keen to focus on their competing visions for how Canada can recover from the pandemic.
Those visions are largely variations on a theme: the need to strategically invest federal funds to help the country’s economy climb out of the crisis and, hopefully, thrive in the post-pandemic world. The differences will be in the details — what to invest in, how much to invest and what takes priority.
But given the magnitude of the global crisis, the governing Liberals’ pandemic management will almost certainly play a role in voters’ decisions. The Sept. 20 election may not be a referendum on Justin Trudeau’s leadership through the crisis, but it will likely be a major factor.
With the campaign taking place against the backdrop of a fourth wave, COVID-19 remains a significant concern in voters’ minds. More than a quarter (26 per cent) of respondents in new polling data by Angus Reid listed COVID-19 as a concern, trailing health care and climate change (36 per cent each) and housing affordability and the economy (26 per cent each).
“The Liberals continue to be seen as a party and a government that’s done a better job than worse on pandemic management, and to that end I think it’s quite notable that 45 per cent of people who … are expressing personal concern about the pandemic also say that they’re inclined to vote Liberal. That’s a big number,” said Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl in an interview.
“The fourth wave, the Delta variant, concerns about that are very, very real.”
That same poll found that Canadians’ approval of Ottawa’s pandemic management has hit the highest point since November 2020, with 55 per cent saying the Liberal government has done a “good job” handling COVID-19.
Based on Angus Reid’s tracking, the government’s approval ratings on handling the pandemic has risen steadily since April, when the country’s supply of vaccines began ramping up.
That blunted the opposition Conservatives’ main line of attack against Trudeau’s government — that it was lagging behind the developed world in securing vaccines and getting them into Canadians’ arms. As of last week, Canada was among the highest in the world for the largest percentage of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to Our World in Data.
But Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole has said for months that the ballot box question won’t be the Liberals’ handling of the pandemic — rather, it will be about who Canadians trust to rebuild the economy in the pandemic’s aftermath.
O’Toole has indicated some steps a Conservative government would take to address issues brought to the fore in the crisis: improving Canada’s vaccine research capacity, producing crucial supplies like personal protective equipment in country, and developing a national contact tracing system.
Canadians already got a preview of the Liberals’ post-pandemic vision in April, when Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled the government’s 2021 budget. On top of the $350 billion the Liberals spent during the immediate emergency, Freeland’s budget earmarked $101 billion in new spending over the next several years in an attempt to kick-start a strong economic recovery from the crisis.
The New Democrats are building on Canadians’ renewed appreciation for government supports by promising to expand public health care to include medicine, mental health care and dental care. The NDP is also promising a basic livable income — a concept that Canadians might be more comfortable with after the Liberals’ pandemic income support program, which the NDP pushed to expand. It plans to pay for the new programs by boosting taxes on big business and the “super” rich.
“I think that will be part of the campaign, the NDP trying to demonstrate that it mattered, and it was able to change the outcome because they were in Parliament,” said Abacus Data’s David Coletto.
“To some extent the recovery from the pandemic may figure into how the debate moves forward. But my sense is (the election is) not going to be retrospective, it’s going to be much more about the future. The pandemic, as an issue, will only come into play if it does get worse over this campaign.
“And the debate then becomes about who do you trust to get us through this last — hopefully — wave. And again, I think the Liberals are well positioned there.”