Fossil fuel debate could get deeper
OTTAWA—It’s a summer of climate crisis in Canada. And climate politics is hot on its heels.
Months after the country’s top court declared climate change is an “existential threat” to humanity, wildfires ravaged Western Canada. Hundreds of deaths are possibly linked to the oppressive “heat dome” that squatted over much of the country. The British Columbia town of Lytton broke national heat records for three straight days — and then it burned down.
With the Sept. 20 federal election now underway, polls suggest climate change is a top concern for many people across the country.
How will the debate over climate change play out in the campaign?
One big difference, according to environmentalist and policy experts, is that the debate over the Liberal government’s flagship climate policy — the carbon price — is set to be much calmer, now that the Conservatives have proposed a carbon levy of their own and the Supreme Court of Canada confirmed Ottawa’s ability to impose such a levy to fight climate change this year.
This could open the field to a deeper discussion about what Canada needs to do in the coming decades to pull its weight in the global push to prevent catastrophic climate change.
“We’ve seen a real sea change in federal politics on climate, where all the parties now agree something has to be done,” said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada.
For Stewart, moving past the carbontax debate means more attention will fall on “the elephant in the room” — fossil fuels.
Increased emissions from oil and gas extraction and transportation have offset reductions in other sectors, according to Canada’s most recent national tally. Canada’s total emissions have dropped just one per cent since 2005, although the Liberal government claims its carbon price and billions of dollars spent on green programs will drastically reduce greenhouse gas pollution before 2030.
The government also announced in June that it would also impose a mandatory target for all new vehicles sold in Canada to be emissions-free by 2035.
But Stewart says the Liberals will still be challenged over their support for the fossil fuel sector — by, for instance, nationalizing the Trans Mountain pipeline system to ensure it could be expanded to sell more Alberta oil — even as they pledge to transform Canada into a “netzero” economy by 2050.
“They wanted to be able to pretend that we could expand fossil fuel production and get to a zero-carbon economy — and you can’t just do that,” Stewart said.
“With no longer having this phoney war over the carbon tax, that’s going to become increasingly obvious.”
What’s required, Stewart says, is being honest about the future of Canada’s oil and gas sector, which will need to be phased out as the country pushes to eliminate emissions by 2050. The Liberal government belatedly acknowledged this, he said, by launching consultations on July 20 for a “just transition” for workers in the fossil-fuel sector. But those consultations come almost two years after the Liberals promised legislation for such a transition during the 2019 election campaign.
“That will be a major challenge for the Liberals, to convince voters that they’re serious about the file while still defending some of the actions they’ve taken to bring the oil and gas sector along,” said Michael Bernstein, executive director of the non-profit climate organization Clean Prosperity.
Another front on which Bernstein expects the Liberals will be criticized is over their government’s new emissions target for 2030, which was increased this spring from 30 per cent below 2005 levels to at least 40 per cent lower. As Bernstein noted, Canada’s revised target is still significantly lower than those of the United Kingdom and members of the European Union.
The NDP has criticized Canada’s 2030 target as insufficient, and already laid out how it would increase it to 50 per cent below 2005 levels and change Ottawa’s federal carbon price so that it is more stringent on heavy polluters like cement and steel production facilities.
The Greens, meanwhile, pledge to halt all new fossil fuel development — including the Trans Mountain expansion and liquified natural gas projects — while they push for unspecified government spending to transition oil and gas workers into new jobs.
The Conservatives will also be challenged on climate change, Bernstein predicted. He says their proposal for carbon pricing is vulnerable to criticism that the policy’s rebate system — which would allow people to use the money they pay into the levy to buy green products like bicycles or a new furnace — doesn’t encourage burning less carbon.
Meanwhile, the implosion of the Green party into bitter infighting could give other parties — such as the NDP — a chance to “claim the mantle” as climate champions in voters’ minds, Bernstein said.
“I don’t think it’s just going to be an election about the economy and health care,” he said. “You’re going to hear a lot about climate.”