Will new low-key look capture him a majority?
Justin Trudeau has never liked to be judged by the past — especially the past as it was defined by his father’s years as prime minister.
But like it or not, Trudeau walks into his third election campaign as Liberal leader closing in on 50 years of age, with nearly six years of governing under his belt and a past of his own to defend.
Has Trudeau changed the world as his younger self might have once hoped? No, but the world has changed him, in large ways that have also rattled the whole country.
“Better is always possible” was one of the rallying phrases that lifted Trudeau into office in 2015 — a slogan to symbolize all the youthful hope and change he promised. Hard experience has taught, however, that better is not always inevitable for Trudeau.
Nor are “sunny ways.”
Donald Trump was the not better development that rocked Trudeau’s first term, upending Canada’s most important relationship with its U.S. neighbour, not to mention the nature of politics itself. And then, of course, no sooner had Trudeau squeaked through with a second, minority mandate in late 2019, when COVID-19 turned the world upside down again.
When, Trudeau must have wondered over the past few years, will better be probable as well as possible? This is exactly what his rivals will be asking Canadians to consider as well — can Trudeau still be a symbol of hope and change while also being the battlehardened veteran of some truly extraordinary times in the life of this country?
“For some reason, I make them nutty,” Trudeau said about Conservatives back in 2014 as he was settling into his job as Liberal leader. That observation has remained true, if not more so. Trudeau, after six years in power, has emerged as a polarizing leader.
There’s a deep irony here — from the moment that Trudeau decided to seek the Liberal leadership nearly a decade ago, his mission was to recreate the space for a massmarket middle party in Canada. It was an ambitious, even audacious goal.
In 2011, when the Liberals were nearly wiped off the political map in this country, it wasn’t entirely clear that Canada would need them anymore — the right had the Conservatives, the left had the New Democrats and one could envision a world where Canadian voters would soon be presented with the same, stark, right-left choice as voters in the U.S.
That didn’t happen, largely because
“We did so many really big and fundamental things to put Canada on a better track over the course of that first mandate.” LIBERAL LEADER JUSTIN TRUDEAU
Trudeau revived the Liberals and put the “natural governing party” back in business. But the polarization has happened in a different, highly personal way for him. In short, he is as likely to be hated as much as he’s loved. A recent Abacus Data poll showed Trudeau reaping positive and negative rankings in virtually equal shares — 40 per cent on the up side, 41 per cent on the down side. The election will be held Sept. 20.
As Abacus observed though, that’s better than where he stood before the last election, when only 33 per cent had a positive impression and 45 per cent judged him negatively. The improvement is almost certainly related to his pandemic performance, despite rivals’ attempts to cast Trudeau’s response as inadequate (vaccinations) or too much (spending and public appearances). But the uptick in the opinion numbers is also likely rooted in Trudeau’s evolution as a leader over two terms — call them, if you like, Trudeau 1.0 and Trudeau 2.0. A lot changed between 2015 and 2021; not just in the world, but in Trudeau’s leadership style as well.
Trudeau 1.0 was all about lofty promises and expectations; the prime minister who seemed most energized by events on the big world stage than dreary politics at home. This was the man who vaulted off to international summitry from the moment he was elected, forming a bromance with Barack Obama and then a love-hate soap opera with Donald Trump. This version of Trudeau was going to save the planet from climate change (while buying a pipeline, mind you), overhaul Canada’s electoral system and change the Liberal party itself from a staid old institution into a “movement.” In this Trudeau universe, new friends were always better than old friends; star power, youth and change valued over anything that reeked of oldfashioned politics or — perish the thought — his dad’s Liberal party.
Some of that shiny, new lustre started to fade before the first term was over. Trips to India and the Aga Khan’s private island put all that jet-setting in a harsh new light and the disastrous SNCLavalin saga, which blew apart his cabinet and PMO, revealed the perils of paying too little attention at home.
Then came the true end of Trudeau 1.0 — the explosive news during the last campaign of Trudeau dressing up in brown face and black face during his reckless years before politics. Trudeau survived that embarrassment, which might have felled another less wellknown politician, and voters ultimately decided to give him another chance.
Trudeau 2.0 came to office late in 2019 a much more grounded leader — literally, in fact, when the pandemic confined him to Canada and even his own home for long stretches. He became a household name in a totally different way, addressing Canadians daily from his front step at Rideau Cottage.
Bearded — “scruffy Daddy” is what his kids called him when he sported that look on vacation — Trudeau assumed the look of an older, hopefully wiser leader. Pandemic aside, it suited the reflective spirit in which he’d entered 2020.
In an interview earlier this year, he said he came out of the 2019 election dwelling on how he and his government had failed to make real connections with citizens during their first term.
“We did so many really big and fundamental things to put Canada on a better track over the course of that first mandate,” Trudeau said. “But we didn’t always bring Canadians along with it, the way we could have and should have.”
In a way, he said, the pandemic kind of solved that problem for him. “You know, we are suddenly in a position where the federal government has really, really mattered in a tangible and direct way to Canadians.”
He also said in that interview with me that COVID had deepened his tendency to be an “introvert” — a self-description that provoked howls from those who still see him as little more than a drama teacher who had the good fortune to be born into political celebrity. (He actually taught math and French, but that drama-teacher thing persists.)
Those who know Trudeau well, however, are well acquainted with the introvert he was talking about. He is not a prime minister who keeps his caucus on speed-dial. During his first term, MPs and even ministers complained of his tendencies to be aloof or distant; the ways in which his tight team of advisers kept him removed from caucus.
Trudeau 2.0 is a little more accessible to MPs and ministers. Some of that, insiders say, is because former principal secretary Gerald Butts is gone, and his old friend used to run a lot of interference for his introvert boss. Trudeau now has an official deputy prime minister — Chrystia Freeland, who earned the PM’s enduring trust during the Trump dramas. But beyond that, the second version of Trudeau has also embraced loyalty and long-term association much more than Trudeau 1.0.
Suddenly, post-2019, reports would emerge from PMO of how Trudeau was reaching out to long-time Liberals for advice and guidance. Bob Rae, the former Ontario premier and interim Liberal leader, was a case in point. Though he had done some advisory work for Trudeau in the first term, Rae was largely relegated to Liberal past when this PM first came to office. But the two started talking more when 2020 dawned and by the end of last year, Rae was made Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations.
At the same time, Trudeau has been leaning more heavily in his second term on cabinet ministers who know him best. Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who has known Trudeau since childhood, is the point man on all things federal-provincial. LeBlanc, a savvy political operator who makes Trudeau laugh, is more likely to tease the boss than flatter him — and this PM, having grown up around political sycophants, definitely prefers those who don’t try to suck up to him.
Other ministers who have been with Trudeau for a long time — before he got the big job — also saw their star rise in this second term. Marc Miller, an old schoolmate, has been doing a lot of heavy lifting on the all-consuming and all-important realm of Indigenous Services, while Omar Alghabra, at the core of Trudeau’s leadership team since the beginning, ascended to cabinet as Transport Minister.
All of this speaks to Trudeau’s evolving recognition in the 2.0 world that the known, familiar and low-key are the ingredients for the long haul. As observed before, so did the switch of governors general. In the first term, Trudeau literally shot for the stars, choosing astronaut Julie Payette. In the second term, he opted for Inuk leader Mary Simon, who was probably the best, if not the flashiest, choice the last time.
Some observers speculated that this second term, filled with dark moments, may have tempted Trudeau to think of moving on; that surely the fun had gone out of the job. That speculation missed all the ways in which Trudeau, especially the 2.0 version, had been transforming his leadership style for the long haul — tightening the circle of trust around him and, in very recent months, feeling free enough to occasionally go off a script that often left him looking inauthentic.
The beard disappeared recently too, giving Canadians a glimpse of the man who he used to be, before the daily grind of the COVID-19. One smart political observer I know suggested to me recently that the beardless Trudeau also reminds Canadians of what life was like before the pandemic; that this too will end.
Trudeau is entering his third election not to become the person he used to be — too much has happened to him, the country and the world. But he wants another chance to win a majority, just like his father did in 1974 after getting knocked to a minority from 1972-74.
That outcome is not inevitable, but in going for it, Justin Trudeau is showing that he hasn’t entirely given up on the idea that better is always possible.