Battle for Quebec could be a Liberal-Bloc showdown
Experts say voters in province have proven in the past they’re capable of delivering surprises
MONTREAL—The battle for votes in Quebec is shaping up to be a showdown between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois, experts say, but history has shown the province’s voters are regularly capable of delivering a surprise.
At dissolution of Parliament, the Liberals held 35 seats in Quebec compared to 32 for the Bloc, which roared back to relevance in 2019 under the leadership of Yves-François Blanchet. The Conservatives held 10 and the NDP had one.
“I expect that the dynamic will be Bloc vs. Liberals, with the NDP and Conservatives a little bit outside looking in because of the dynamics in place,” Daniel Weinstock, McGill University law professor and Katharine A. Pearson Chair in Civil Society and Public Policy, said.
Three experts who spoke with The Canadian Press all agreed the stakes in Quebec are highest for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who needs a strong showing if he hopes to return to a majority government. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 and a minority government in the 2019 election.
Picking up some seats, especially around the suburbs of Montreal or Quebec City, “would clearly be part of the puzzle that would get (the Liberals) over the line,” Weinstock said.
To be successful, Trudeau will have to carefully navigate a provincial political climate with a distinct national bent, while taking on an adversary in Blanchet who will be eager to exploit any perceived differences between the interests of the Liberal leader and Quebec.
That renewed climate of Quebec nationalism is championed by Premier François Legault, who has brought in legislation banning religious symbols, tabled a strict French-language law and proposed amending Canada’s constitution to formally recognize Quebec as a nation with French as its only official language.
Weinstock said this “nationalist retrenchment” makes it harder for the Conservatives and the NDP to break through in Quebec, despite overtures by both party leaders and an established base of Conservative support near Quebec City. Neither Tory Leader Erin O’Toole nor NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh have particularly strong connections to the province, even though O’Toole was born in Montreal, he said.
Quebec voters, however, have proven time and time again they’re capable of surprises.
In recent federal elections, a significant bloc of the province’s electorate has been willing to shift allegiances at a large enough scale to change the course of an election.
In 2011, Quebec voters were the driving force behind an “orange wave” that propelled the Jack Layton-led NDP to official Opposition status — its best result in party history. In 2015, the province helped send Trudeau’s Liberals to a majority.
Three years ago, the Bloc Québécois sailed back from obscurity, more than tripling their seat count — a result few analysts predicted.
Daniel Béland, head of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, said it’s this volatility, combined with a high seat count, that makes the province a potential kingmaker. “It can be full of surprises,” he said. “It seems that many francophone voters are not faithful to one party and they may change their mind at the last minute.”
And although the possibility of a big win makes the province irresistible to political leaders, it’s not always clear what drives its voters’ allegiances.
While the province has rarely voted en masse for a politician who hails from outside the province, Layton’s strong showing shows that perfect French isn’t always a prerequisite. Layton was from Ontario, but had Quebec roots, spoke his imperfect French with a Quebec accent and was able to connect with people, Béland said.