It’s difficult to win betting on the NFL
If you are going to put money down, here’s some advice from the experts
Betting on the National Football League is hugely popular. Placing a winning wager on NFL games, not so much.
“It’s important to point out that it’s extremely difficult to win on betting the NFL,” Rob Pizzola, the chief operating officer of the sports betting tracker business betstamp and a professional bettor, told the Star this week. “Watching games and being an NFL guru is not going to help you win when betting on it.”
Those long odds against cashing in haven’t served as a deterrent, however. A recent survey of Americans who bet on sports showed the NFL was decisively the most popular league among online bettors. The league and its teams, which once publicly shunned betting, have changed their tune dramatically since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the ban on single-event sports betting in 2018.
The Washington Post reported this week that about $270 million (U.S.) in revenue is expected to be generated from sports betting and gaming partnerships this year.
While NFL fantasy leagues and office pools have long been popular among Canadian sports fans, the new Safe and Regulated Sports Betting that takes effect Friday will provide new opportunities for both established and neophyte bettors to legally bet on four-down football.
With that in mind, we spoke with Pizzola and Phill Gray, the head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, for their words of wisdom before the start of the NFL regular season next month.
Avoid one-stop shopping: “I bet at a dozen sportsbooks,” Pizzola said. “It’s very similar to when you go to a grocery store. If you saw the same product available at five different prices, you’d take the cheapest price. The biggest mistake a bettor makes is only betting at one sportsbook.” Added Gray: “Spread the money around, especially if you’re doing live (in-game) betting. The prices can vary so dramatically you can get into some juicy (numbers that favour the bettor).”
Read the fine print: From Gray: “If you’re going to make the time and the investment, check out the rules at every sportsbook for which you have an account. For some sports, they have specific rules attached. For example, does overtime count (some sportsbooks base their numbers on results in regulation time).” What are the most common types of bets?
The spread (the margin of victory on a game): “For every dollar we take on an NFL Sunday, 65 cents of it is (bet) on the spread,” Gray said. “If the Patriots are minus-7.5 against the Colts, New England needs to win by eight.” From Pizzola: “Most recreational bettors are going to bet on the spread. It’s much easier to bet that way rather than seeing all the numbers.”
The money line: Simply betting on which team will win.
Over/under: Wagering on the total points for the game. “People like to bet on the over,” Gray said. “You can tell if the socalled sharp or pro bettor likes something to go under because you’ll see that number move very quickly.”
Parlays (combining multiple wagers into one bet): “The recreational bettor probably shouldn’t bet parlays,” Pizzola said. “Focus on straight wagers.”
Proposition bets (props or exotics): “It’s mostly player-performance related to the game … will Player X score this number of points,” Gray said. “There are so many options and you get some pretty juicy prices (from the books).” Added Pizzola: “Quite fun and the possibilities are endless. You take a different perspective when you’re rooting for a player to over/under on a certain number of yards than on a team to lose or win a game.”
When should you place a wager? “Most (NFL) bettors are waiting until the last minute and are doing themselves a great disservice because they’re betting into a market that’s highly efficient,” Pizzola said, referring to sportsbooks and professional bettors having all of the information around injuries and other factors by Sunday morning.
“You can take advantage of softer lines early in the week.”
Betting with your heart: “I’m a Dallas Cowboys fan and I bet against them frequently,” Pizzola said. “There’s nothing wrong with betting on your favourite team in a recreational capacity. If the expectation is to win in the long run, however, you have to remove the human element.”
Wagering on pre-season games: “Most teams are trying out different things, playing backup players, etc., which essentially makes things very different from the typical regular season,” Pizzola said. “With that said, if someone wanted to put in the work and stay on top of all the news and follow a bunch of NFL beat writers, they could probably gain an edge. If Andy Reid says Pat Mahomes is going to play all four quarters of a pre-season game, that is probably not factored into the current line and someone could bet K.C. right away.”
How much are you willing, and able, to win and lose? “Don’t go in thinking this is the way you’re going to make money,” said Dr. Jamie Wiebe, the director of player health for the British Columbia Lottery Corporation. “How much are you willing and able to lose? If you stick with that general principle, (betting) is an entertaining option.”
The provincial lottery corporations and sportsbook operators offer responsible gambling programs. ResponsibleGambling.org provides assistance to potential problem gamblers through help lines and counselling.
“No person with a gambling problem ever started out thinking they’d have a gambling problem,” Wiebe said.