An unnecessary fourth wave
We aren’t privy to the deliberations in the inner circle of the federal Liberal party (even though Erin O’Toole once claimed that Canada under Justin Trudeau amounted to “government led by the editorial board of the Toronto Star”).
No, we’re on the outside, like everyone else. But we’re pretty sure that when the Liberal brain trust made the “go” decision for this election campaign, they weren’t counting on COVID-19 roaring back with a such a vengeance.
Back in late July/early August, the pandemic was at its lowest ebb. The country was flooded with vaccines and Canadians were feeling pretty good about how Ottawa had handled things.
The national mood was anxious but generally positive — a good atmosphere for a governing party looking for a vote of confidence
No longer. Public health authorities, who for no good reason kept mum during the first couple of weeks of the campaign, finally emerged late last week with new projections for how COVID’s Delta-driven fourth wave is likely to go this fall, and the picture isn’t pretty.
That’s bad news for the Liberals, who were counting on a relatively contented electorate to get behind them, not the frustrated, angry feeling that’s fuelling both those loud antivax protests and the backlash against them. More importantly, it’s bad news for all of us. We’re being jolted awake to find the nightmare of COVID just won’t end.
On Friday, the Public Health Agency of Canada laid out how it expects the fourth wave to go. As usual, it set out a worst-case scenario, with daily cases soaring above 15,000, if current trends continue. But even if that worst case doesn’t come about (and judging by the experience of the previous three waves, it isn’t likely to), things could get pretty bad.
In fact, they’re already bad in some provinces, especially Alberta. Hospitals there are already warning they’re just a couple of weeks away from a crisis point, where they won’t have the resources to treat everyone who’s getting sick. That should be worrisome for people across the country; we’ve seen all too often how the disease can quickly flare up in areas that thought they had it under control.
The tragedy is that this is so unnecessary. No one expected COVID to be wiped out, but we have the weapons at hand to keep the latest wave under control, if only we’d grab them.
Chief public health officer Theresa Tam noted that at least 7.8 million Canadians are eligible for vaccines but still aren’t fully protect. That includes 5.2 million adults who haven’t had even a single dose.
The anti-vax protesters who are hounding Trudeau on the campaign trail and shamefully harassing health workers account for only a tiny fraction of that number. The bulk are people who, for whatever reason, simply haven’t done their civic duty. Younger people, especially those aged 18-29, are the worst offenders; only 63 per cent are fully vaxxed.
It’s those unvaccinated people who account for the great majority of people getting COVID now, and the best way to avoid those worst-case scenarios is for them to finally get with the program.
If it takes a kick in the rear end, like the threat of not being able to attend a movie or eat inside a restaurant unless you flash a vaccine “passport,” then fine. If it takes a shiny lure like a $100 gift card (which Alberta now promises for everyone getting their shots) then do that too.
Yes, it’s ridiculous to pay people to protect their own health. But the social cost of seeing them fall sick and pushing the health care system to the point of breakdown is a lot greater than whatever those gift cards will add up to.
It’s now obvious the Liberals miscalculated badly when they called an election just as the fourth COVID wave was taking off. They’re being punished in the polls and they may not be able to recover.
That will be for voters to decide on Sept. 20. And a big part of that decision should be based on which party is most likely to get us through the pandemic as quickly, and with as little damage, as possible.