Relations with Iran unlikely to thaw soon
Today marks nine years since Canada severed all diplomatic ties with Iran. The freeze in relations has persisted, despite the 2015 nuclear deal, the global battle against Islamic State group militants in Syria and Iraq, and even last year’s tragic downing of Flight 752. Although it plays host to the second-largest community of Iranians outside the country, Canada remains among the few states with no diplomatic links with Tehran. How long can this go on?
Ottawa first established formal relations with Iran’s revolutionary government in 1988, years after the much-publicized diplomatic caper following the takeover of the U.S. embassy in Tehran. For decades, ties between the two were limited to a small range of issues with little commercial interests, but in recent years, disengaging from and isolating the Iranian government has become an entrenched feature of Canada’s foreign policy.
In September 2012, former prime minister Stephen Harper unilaterally expelled Iran’s representatives from Ottawa and shuttered its own embassy in Tehran. The Harper government simultaneously enacted legislation targeting Iran’s government as a state sponsor of terrorism, pre-emptively sabotaging future attempts to engage Tehran’s leadership. Although Justin Trudeau pledged to re-establish relations with Iran in 2015, his government has since shelved efforts to do so.
But Ottawa’s long policy of naming and shaming Tehran has achieved little in the way of changing Iranian policy. As Canada’s diplomats retreated from Tehran, the United States began back-channel talks with Iran that led to the nuclear agreement, fuelling speculation that Canadian policy was being driven by Israeli animus.
The diplomatic void in Tehran came to the forefront last year after the tragic downing of Flight 752. On Jan. 8, the passenger plane was mistakenly shot down by Iranian forces over Tehran amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran following the American drone strike that assassinated Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Of the 176 on board the flight, 138 were en route to Canada, including 63 citizens.
With no representatives on the ground in Iran, officials in Ottawa have largely relied on other countries to help investigate the plane’s downing and represent the victims. Canada is host to a large diaspora of Iranians, more than 200,000 people, and the tragedy was another reminder that the community cannot evade the crossfire of over four decades of conflict between the United States and Iran.
As a former Canadian diplomat to Tehran wrote following the crash, “Canada has been blind to what has been happening in Iran — especially important these past several days — and we have our hands tied in dealing with this tragedy.” In a report released late last year, Canadian officials criticized the Iranian government’s investigation into its own actions, but conceded that “not having diplomatic relations in a country makes it very hard to deal with issues that arise and that impact your citizens.”
Yet the immense diplomatic and consular challenges brought on by the downing of Flight 752 have not impelled Ottawa to initiate talks to restore basic diplomatic relations with Iran, which have been stalled since 2017. In the lead up to the federal election on Sept. 20, no major party has proposed efforts to engage the Iranian government. Rather, the Conservative party, currently leading in nationwide polling, has promised to “hold the Iranian regime accountable” by enacting additional economic restrictions and deepening the divide between the two nations.
In Tehran, the Trump administration’s withdrawal and subsequent attempts to undermine the nuclear deal have validated those wary of negotiations with the West. The renewed mistrust in Tehran helped propel President Ebrahim Raisi into office this year. This new leadership, watching America’s withdrawal from Kabul, has prioritized engagement with its neighbours, particularly the Arab monarchies across the Persian Gulf, the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, and Russia and China.
Despite nearly a decade of estrangement and a host of issues on which to engage, it is difficult to envision a thaw in relations between Ottawa and Tehran in the near future.