Trudeau was pelted by rocks, but O’Toole may take the hit from voters as an ugly political trend grows
As the federal election campaign enters its final stretch, ugliness has become part of the backdrop.
Canada has had raucous elections in the past, but over this campaign the abuse directed at those seeking office has reached new levels. It has also spread in unexpected, uncalled-for directions.
On a whistle stop in London on Labour Day, protesters pelted Justin Trudeau with gravel.
It is more and more frequent for campaign volunteers to be verbally abused and in some cases physically threatened. Most but not all of those on the receiving end of the abuse were Liberal foot soldiers.
In British Columbia last week, antivaccination demonstrators targeted several hospitals.
In the face of this escalating verbal and physical violence, many are wondering whether Canada’s political culture is taking a permanent turn for the worse, or whether this is a one-off brought about by the pandemic.
Here are a few thoughts: Things had started to take an ugly turn and lines had been crossed before the pandemic.
Just ask Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley. Over her recent tenure as premier and her re-election campaign, the province became the scene of some extremely disturbing anti-government demonstrations.
If one were to track the origins of the phenomenon, one would have to look south of the border and the brand of populism that was a feature of Donald Trump’s recent tenure.
The pandemic undeniably amplified the movement. But the racist and misogynist abuse hurled at the Liberal leader on the campaign trail suggests many in the mob are using the pandemic to air other grievances.
Based on the behaviour and the rhetoric of the most virulent anti-Trudeau demonstrators, some clearly found inspiration in the scenes observed on Capitol Hill last January.
In contrast with the United States, none of the mainstream federal leaders is overtly stoking the fire.
Notwithstanding the blackand-white rhetoric of the past three weeks, on vaccination as on health passports, shades of grey distinguish the Liberals, the Conservatives, the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois. And premiers of every political stripe have introduced vaccination mandates.
Not that this means the demonstrators are politically homeless. It is increasingly frequent to spot the campaign signs of Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party in the crowds.
Bernier has not been averse to offering legitimacy to the protests.
“When tyranny becomes law, revolution becomes our duty,” he tweeted on Tuesday.
Trudeau may be getting mobbed, but it is Erin O’Toole who stands to take a hit and not just because the Liberals have been trying to pin the turmoil on his party.
The Conservative leader has unequivocally condemned the demonstrations. Early on, he made it clear he was not interested in the support of people engaged in the kind of disruptive tactics that have dogged the Liberal campaign.
Canadians are massively in favour of vaccination mandates. They have overwhelmingly supported public health restrictions. O’Toole cannot not afford to be ambivalent in his condemnation of the demonstrations if he wants to attract the middle-of-the-road Canadians he needs to win.
But in the process, he has almost certainly sent some diehard Conservatives over to Bernier.
In Canada, polls show that the antivaccination movement has a lot more traction on the right of the political spectrum than on the left.
Ditto in the case of voters who espoused Trumpism. While a minority of Canadians cheered the former president on, that group essentially congregated within the conservative movement.
At midcampaign, some polls reported that Bernier’s party had overtaken the Greens for fifth place.
Annamie Paul’s party failed to resolve some deep and very public internal divisions prior to the campaign. Things have only gone downhill since then.
But Paul and Bernier’s parties are not communicating vessels. The Green demise is a gift to the NDP and the Liberals.
Bernier is essentially poaching in the Conservative pool. It would likely have been worse for O’Toole had his competitive position in the polls not fuelled conservative hopes that the end of the Trudeau era is in sight.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Quebec Premier François Legault will be the next on the re-election trail.
If the pandemic is not mostly behind their respective provinces before they hit the hustings, they should not assume they will be spared the ugliness that has become a recurring feature of the federal campaign.
Compared to Ontario, Quebec so far has been an oasis of calm.
On Tuesday, Trudeau’s Montreal events unfolded with little or no major disruptions. That may be down to Legault. When it comes to the management of the pandemic, the premier has been so front and centre that few anti-vaccine Quebecers can seriously harbour the impression that Trudeau is their main nemesis.