Legault wagers on Conservatives
In the winter of 1958, Maurice Duplessis, Quebec’s all-powerful premier since 1944, decided to put his formidable political organization at the service of the minority federal government led by John Diefenbaker — a Conservative, unilingual prime minister from Saskatchewan.
The result of this surprising move stunned the nation. On March 31, 1958, Diefenbaker’s Conservatives swept the country, including the province of Quebec, where they elected 50 MPs (out of 75 seats), an increase of 41. The Liberals, who had dominated federal politics in the province since the days of Wilfrid Laurier, were reduced to 25 seats.
Duplessis’s biographer, Conrad Black, wrote: “It was out of this mélange of vengefulness, autonomist ambition and straight-line partisanship that the Duplessis-Diefenbaker alliance was born.” Could similar motives explain the unexpected endorsement of the Conservative party bestowed by Quebec Premier François Legault last week? Legault called the Green, NDP and Liberal programs “dangerous,” while “for the Quebec nation, Mr. O’Toole’s approach is a good one.”
Is it “vengefulness” against Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau? It is not clear what grudge Legault holds against his federal vis-a-vis, but it has been clear for months that something is wrong with the relationship, even if both first ministers recently agreed on a $6-billion federal transfer for Quebec’s daycare program.
Could Legault’s extraordinary intervention in the federal campaign be explained by “straight-line partisanship”? There have always been ties between Legault’s party — the Coalition Avenir Québec — and the Tories. Some Conservative organizers are also caquistes. Gérard Deltell, the Conservative caucus’s star in Quebec, was a prominent CAQ member of Quebec’s National Assembly. But there are many more (former?) separatists in François Legault’s government than there are Conservatives.
François Legault is a staunch nationalist. The more powers he can repatriate from Ottawa, the better. This is his “autonomist ambition.” For that to happen, he needs a weak federal government. This means a regionalist government, willing to transfer to Quebec at least some of the jurisdictions that the nationalists demand, and also a minority government, dependent on the Bloc Québécois.
What will be the effect of Legault’s coming out? We are not in 1958, where a powerful premier could dictate to the province’s population how they should vote. But François Legault is extraordinarily popular in the province. Besides, Legault and his team have their finger on the pulse of French-speaking Quebec. They are incredibly good at sensing how the province’s citizens feel. The premier would not have shared his election preference publicly if he did not sense that something is going on, and that there is an opportunity for him to play kingmaker in Ottawa.
At a press conference on Friday afternoon, the premier appeared to walk back a bit on his “endorsement.” He avoided naming any federal party. But he did insist again that three of the parties on the ballot are a threat to Quebec’s autonomy — leaving only the Conservatives and the Bloc.
Meanwhile, another typically Canadian controversy exploded during Thursday’s English-language leaders’ debate, a controversy that has since monopolized the province’s news cycle. Legault called it an attack on the Quebec nation.
At the opening of the debate, the moderator, Shachi Kurl, asserted that Quebec’s laws on religious signs and on language were “discriminatory,” even suggesting that they were “racist.” This “question” in the form of an editorial provoked an outpour of indignation in Quebec, to the point that it may have erased the effects of Legault’s earlier intervention. As we know, when the province’s francophones feel threatened or insulted, they tend to regroup behind the most nationalist party.
Like other Canadians, Quebecers began voting last Friday. It would not be surprising if thousands of these early ballots went to the Bloc Québécois. What about O’Toole’s Conservatives, though — will they benefit from François Legault’s compliments? It is impossible to say at this stage.
However, one thing appears clearer by the day: the Liberals will not succeed in securing their cherished majority by winning additional seats in Quebec.