Start here to catch up to California governor recall
WASHINGTON—U.S. President Joe Biden campaigned in Long Beach, Calif., on Monday to help Gov. Gavin Newsom’s attempt to hold onto his job.
After a roller coaster recall campaign that ends in a special election Tuesday, it seems most likely that Newsom will triumph and carry on. But it is still possible that the mostly popular Democratic governor of the largest Democratic party stronghold in the country could lose. And if that happens, the person most likely to replace him is a Trump-supporting talk radio host supported by fewer than 30 per cent of Californians.
What the heck?
Here’s what you need to know to get caught up on Tuesday’s recall election.
What’s going on?
Newsom was elected governor in 2018 with 62 per cent of the vote in a state that is among the most reliably Democratic-voting in the U.S. The next regularly scheduled election for governor is in November 2022.
Despite some controversy over Newsom’s handling of the COVID-19 epidemic (including his hypocritical attendance at a party at a swanky restaurant in violation of his own pandemic guidelines), there isn’t any major scandal driving the campaign to remove him from office. In fact, polls suggest that he remains relatively popular, with an approval rating that has hovered above 50 per cent all year. (By way of comparison, Biden’s current approval rating is 45 per cent.)
Still, those who want him removed from office managed to get enough signatures on a petition to trigger the recall election that takes place Tuesday.
Huh? If Newsom is popular, why is there a recall election?
California’s political system allows voters to pass specific propositions that tie the hands of their elected officials — writer Michael Lewis once described it as “designed mainly to maximize the likelihood that voters will continue to despise the people they elect.”
California residents have the easiest process of any state to try to turf those politicians whom they despise. While some states require a felony conviction or serious misconduct, California does not require any reason at all. Many states require the petition that triggers a recall vote to be signed by 25 per cent of the number of voters in the previous election; California’s threshold of just 12 per cent is the lowest in the country.
There have been 55 attempts to remove California’s governor since the state’s recall law was enacted in 1913. The only one that actually led to a vote was in 2003, when Democrat Gray Davis was removed and replaced by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.
So how does it work?
The vote is mostly being conducted by mail, although a sizable percentage may drop off their ballots in person on Tuesday. Each ballot contains two questions: should Newsom be recalled, and who should replace him.
If Newsom receives 50 per cent support on the first question, the recall will have been defeated and the second question will become irrelevant. However, if a majority votes to remove Newsom, then the winner of the most votes on the second question — no matter how small a percentage that person gets — becomes governor.
The Democrats heavily discouraged anyone from running against Newsom, fearing that an attractive alternative might split their base, so most of the 49 candidates to replace him are Republicans or fringey independents. With so many candidates, it’s possible that a replacement governor could win with less than three per cent of the vote. And although such an extreme scenario is unlikely, it is very likely that the winner in a recall scenario would take office with much less than a majority of the vote, and with fewer votes than were cast to keep Newsom in office.
What do the polls say will happen?
Recent polls have shown a strong majority of voters — 5742, according to the fivethirtyeight.com polling average on Monday — support keeping Newsom in office.
However, as the poll crunching experts point out, it’s very hard to know what to expect on election day. It’s not a regularly scheduled election year, so turnout is hard to predict. It’s a mostly Democratic state with a moderately popular incumbent, which would seem to favour Newsom. But “throw the bums out” is often a more motivating ballot prompt than “the status quo is mostly fine.”
If Newsom is recalled, the race to replace him appears to be led by Larry Elder, a Los Angeles talk show host who would repeal COVID-19 mask and vaccination mandates, opposes legal abortion, has called climate change a “crock” and wants to eliminate the minimum wage.
The somewhat Trumpy Elder has accomplished the interesting feat of being opposed by a two-thirds majority of poll respondents, while simultaneously lapping the pack of alternatives. With 28 per cent support, according to the fivethirtyeight.com poll average, he isn’t exactly popular. But the next highest name on the ballot is real estate YouTuber Kevin Paffrath (the lone registered Democrat) with only seven per cent support, followed by former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer at five per cent. Former Olympian and Kardashian step-celebrity Caitlyn Jenner is back with the other 46 candidates who have less than five per cent support.
The prospect of an Elder victory — and the Texas-style COVID-19 and abortion politics that would come with it — seems to have energized the Newsom campaign, with some analysts crediting his recent poll bump to Elder’s lead among replacement candidates.
When will we know the results?
Probably not Tuesday night. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, but that is merely the time by which voters need to drop off their ballots in person or put them in the mail. Ballots received by mail can arrive up to seven days after election day, as long as they were sent on or before Tuesday. California is routinely one of the slowest states at reporting results. And since most votes in this election are expected to be mailed, it’s going to be a while before the complete results are known.