Things I’ve learned so far in this federal election
I’ve been a pollster in Canada for more than 35 years. I learned the trade at Gallup, in the 1980s and 1990s. I’ve worked for the Gallup poll, the Forum Poll, the Mainstreet Poll and the Campaign Research Poll, an operation I set up.
I’m no longer affiliated with any poll or media outlet. I’m retired now, so I have no skin in this game. I can call it like I see it.
Here are some things I have learned so far in this federal election (the tenth I’ve polled):
> There is no longer a Conservative majority of seats in Canada. That dream died with the last Progressive Conservative.
> The Conservatives no longer have a path to victory in this election.
> The last pathway closed when Erin O’Toole refused to say he wouldn’t repeal the assault weapon ban.
> Women hate assault weapons. They will always vote to protect their children.
> A gender gap that previously didn’t exist suddenly yawned wide in the Conservative campaign.
> The Conservative promise to repeal $10-a-day daycare also contributed to this gender gap.
> The truest path to a majority still lies through the Island of Montreal, Toronto and its inner suburbs, and half of Atlantic Canada.
> When you add a solid base in Vancouver (as many as 12 to 14 seats), B.C. is no longer dessert at the end of election night, it’s a second course.
> The People’s Party of Canada is not your grandparents’ Social Credit.
> It’s not your parents’ Christian Heritage Party, either.
> The PPC is Ford Nation writ large across Canada (the original Ford Nation, the coalition of disgruntled conservatives, NDP and ethnic interests and that came out for Rob Ford in 2010).
> They are young, ambitious, wealthy and they cut across gender and regional lines.
> The NDP had only one role in this election; to clear 25 per cent in the national popular vote, and escort in a Conservative majority.
> Neither the party, nor Jagmeet Singh, could get it done.
> The Green campaign was stillborn, conceived in strife.
> The Green’s best day was the first day of the campaign.
> The Conservatives thought this was a change election. Then it changed.
> The change election changed into a wave election.
> A Liberal majority is not only likely, but probable.
Ask me Friday. Things move fast in the last week before E-day. It might be a Liberal blowout.