Virus may be spreading faster than 2020
Over 300 cases reported among students and staff as schools reopen
Ontario has confirmed more than 300 COVID-19 cases early into the school year — a number that one expert says indicates the virus is spreading faster than last year.
Ahmed Al-Jaishi, an epidemiologist and postdoctorate fellow at the Ottawa Health Research Institute, said he was shocked to see 328 confirmed cases in students and staff reported when the province released its initial set of data Tuesday.
“I don’t know what I was expecting,” Al-Jaishi said. “But my gut reaction was, ‘that’s a big number.’ ”
Based on his research, AlJaishi said community transmission for people younger than 20 years old is six times higher compared with last year. This year, Al Jaishi found that there are 60 COVID-19 cases per million for people younger than 20 years old. The number was 10 cases per million last year.
Pediatric infectious diseases specialist Dr. Anna Banerji at the University of Toronto does not find the new provincial coronavirus numbers “surprising at all.”
She said the Delta variant is more transmissible and “schools … have the largest congregate setting of unvaccinated people” with different ventilation systems. “Some of it is inadequate, many of them have no physical distancing, and in Grade 7 and below they have unvaccinated students and teachers.”
She says loosening the criteria for students to stay home was a “mistake” and the province should have kept symptoms on the list like runny noses.
“Any child with any new onset symptoms should stay at home. It’s better to keep kids home with stricter criteria, than to send home entire classes or to shut down a school,” she added.
The provincial data dating back to Aug. 23 and released Tuesday shows that out of the 4,844 schools being tracked in the province, 218 schools — or about five per cent — have confirmed staff or student cases. At this time last year, there were fewer than 30 confirmed cases in schools, according to archived data.
Avenue Road Public School in Cambridge is shown as having eight cases.
According to provincial data, there are 14 COVID-19 cases at 13 schools in Toronto, the majority in students.
École élémentaire La Mosaïque in East York has the highest out of all Toronto schools with two confirmed cases. The twelve remaining Toronto schools each have one case.
Toronto Public Health, meanwhile, is investigating 23 schools that potentially have COVID-19 cases. The province’s numbers are for confirmed cases only and don’t specify the source of infection.
They also may lag other reporting.
For example, Ontario specifically warns that if there are any discrepancies between its data and data from a public health unit, then public health unit data should be regarded as the most up-to-date numbers.
Last week, Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Kieran Moore said that although people should expect some COVID-19 activity during the school year, schools are relatively safe. Moore cited federal data showing that 87 per cent of students who got COVID-19 during the school year contracted it from outside school.
Al-Jaishi has independently monitored Ontario school case counts since last September.
Because the school year just started, most of these cases are a result of community transmission rather than school transmissions, he said.
“If cases are increasing in schools, we know that cases will increase in the community, just because kids don’t live in silos — they interact with family members, friends and other community members,” Al-Jaishi said. “I think (school case counts) are an important indicator of what is going to happen in the community.”
Though the province is committed to keeping kids in school uninterrupted, especially with vaccination more widespread, Al Jaishi isn’t confident that this school year will run smoothly amid the ongoing pandemic.
“I feel like right now we’re set up to fail and we’re set up to see school closures early on, potentially Thanksgiving or more likely by Christmas,” Al-Jaishi said. “I hope that doesn’t happen, but if nothing changes, that’s where I personally see it going.”
Dr. Banerji, on the other hand, doesn’t think that there will be a universal closing for schools, but strongly advocates for getting children vaccinated. “COVID will continue to spread in schools, and from schools into the community until we can get the vast majority of kids vaccinated.
“They should have a policy in place for mandatory vaccinations of teachers and eligible students to keep schools open … They need to do the right thing and pay attention to the science.”