Contract years work both ways
Shades of the Kawhi Leonard saga in Jays’ situation.
Kawhi times two? Not quite.
Back in 2018, the Toronto Raptors were a team in search of a championship and the acquisition of superstar forward Kawhi Leonard got them there. It was always going to be a one-year relationship, although many desperately hoped otherwise.
It turned out well for everyone involved. The San Antonio Spurs got good value for a key asset. Kawhi got out of Texas and positioned himself for a massive new contract. The Raptors got a terrific season out of Leonard, and captured their championship.
There are interesting, if not identical, parallels to this year’s Blue Jays and their business relationship with pitcher Robbie Ray and second baseman Marcus Semien.
Both are very good major leaguers having exceptional seasons. Perhaps career seasons. Both are on one-year deals with a ball club that is just looking to get back into postseason play and re-establish its relevance in this market. The second part has already been largely achieved. The effervescent Jays and their powerhouse offence led by young stars Vladdy Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the talk of baseball once again.
True to their word, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have built a young, winning core buttressed by extensive and smart free-agent spending. Ray and Semien, with huge bounceback seasons, have turned out to be two of the best freeagent bargains by any team in recent years. For a combined $26 million (U.S.), Ray could win the Cy Young and Semien is arguably the best hitting second baseman in the game.
Naturally, Jays fans have been wondering for some time whether they can be re-signed beyond this season. How much would it cost? Will the Jays even be in the running?
But perhaps that’s the wrong way to look at all of this.
Leonard was highly motivated to shine in Toronto. It turned out brilliantly for him, as he ended up with all the money and his choice not only of locations but teammates. Everybody got what they wanted in the end.
Similarly, Ray and Semien are looking at the biggest paydays of their careers. They came into this season looking to establish themselves as elite players, positioned to theoretically capitalize on the restored financial health of baseball this winter after the sport was, like others, hammered by pandemic restrictions.
Could it be that in some situations having highly motivated players on one-year deals is preferable? Instead of being terrified of having players excel with free agency on the horizon, is this exactly the type of situation teams should be looking for?
For years, in many sports, the emphasis has been on “locking up” key players on long-term deals. It’s a notion wedded to quaint old ideas of loyalty and giving the fans a roster of players they can cheer for year after year. It also gives teams cost certainty and roster continuity.
But does it deliver the best possible bang for the buck?
The Jays, with the 11th largest payroll this season, really have the ideal structure. They have two expensive free agents in George Springer ($150 million over six years) and pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu ($80 million over four years). At the other end of the spectrum, Bichette and Guerrero together eat up less than one per cent of the $150-million payroll.
In between are Ray and Semien. After this season, both will likely be looking for multiyear, nine-figure contracts. Together they could cost more than $200 million. Those could be bills the Jays won’t want to pay.
There have been reports the team already tried to sign Semien, who bet on himself last winter after Oakland declined to extend a qualifying offer and now will cash in handsomely.
Interestingly, Semien signed after the Jays struck out on outfielder Michael Brantley, who re-upped with the Astros instead on a two-year deal. Brantley has been hobbled by hamstring and knee problems and has only eight home runs and 45 RBIs this season; Semien had 39 homers and 94 RBIs heading into Friday’s game against Minnesota.
The propaganda you get on the team’s broadcasts suggests Toronto’s coaching staff and organization in general have provided the canvas upon which Ray and Semien have painted masterpiece seasons, and maybe that’s true. But both athletes came into this season itching to prove people wrong about their abilities. They’ve done so, and deserve the bulk of the credit.
Rather than signing one or both, it could be argued the Jays would be better to let other clubs overpay them on multi-year arrangements, then go out and find similarly motivated players also looking to have a big season before cashing in on a big free-agent contract. Not easy, but doable.
Eventually, the Jays are going to have to pay Guerrero and Bichette massive amounts of money. You don’t want the payroll clogged up with too many expensive, long-term deals, unless Rogers wants to match payrolls with the Dodgers and Yankees.
That’s not to say Ray and Semien haven’t earned big contracts, and they’ll likely get them. The question is whether the Jays want to be the ones to sign those deals.
If they don’t sign Ray and Semien, they’ll have a chance to replace both, or at least replace their production. The Jays have proven they can navigate those tricky waters just as effectively as any team in baseball.
If it ends up being just a oneyear relationship between these two players and the Jays, that’s OK. Both sides will have profited. Both can then move on.