Boost TTC ridership by lowering fare
Big number: 51,409, the number of TTC pass sales in August 2021, a number that’s just 27% of pre-pandemic levels. Monthly pass sales, which cost $156 for adult riders, are lagging behind overall ridership recovery.
The TTC’s in trouble. My colleague Ben Spurr reported last week on the transit agency’s many pandemic-linked challenges. Ridership is way down. People are worried about catching COVID-19 on the trains and buses. Others have ditched the TTC because they’re working from home all or most of the time now. Fare revenue has fallen off a cliff.
The TTC is trying to figure out, in this coming post-pandemic reality, how to bring people back on board.
I’ve got a simple idea: Let’s make the TTC a lot cheaper.
Because as it stands, one of the reasons riders might prove slow to come back to Toronto transit is that Toronto transit is, well, kind of a rip-off.
That sounds harsh, I know. But it’s math, not just me, suggesting the TTC isn’t much of a deal for frequent users.
Consider the cost of the monthly pass — the item formerly known as the Metropass. These days, a monthly pass for an adult rider offering unlimited use of the TTC will set you back a whopping $156.
To have that cost work out in your favour versus the cost of just paying the regular singletrip Presto fare of $3.20, you’d need to take more than 48 trips in a month.
Trips to and from work every weekday wouldn’t cover it. You’d also need to mix in some weekend and evening trips before you broke even. On months with a lot of holidays, or in that terrible short month we call February, a lot of people are unlikely to ever come out ahead.
Post-pandemic, coming out ahead will get even more unlikely. Any sustained increase in work-from-home arrangements is going to further erode the utility of a monthly transit pass, and the number of people buying them.
The TTC is already seeing this play out. According to a recent report from TTC CEO Rick Leary, sales of transit passes in August had recovered to just 27 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. That’s a much slower recovery than ridership overall, which was up to 38 per cent of pre-pandemic levels at the time of Leary’s report and has since rebounded a bit further to about 44 per cent.
To help address lagging pass sales, here’s what I’d suggest: Cut the price of the regular monthly pass to $100.
For $100 a month, riders should get unlimited access to the TTC network.
Why? Well, first, it’s admittedly a nice, round number. In addition, it’s a big discount over the current price. Passes for seniors, students and lowincome people accessing the city’s Fair Pass program could be adjusted down accordingly, by a similar amount. It means most riders would break even after 32 trips, making it a deal even if you work from home a few days each month.
A $100 Toronto pass is also more in line with what Montreal, at $90.50 for a monthly pass on their STM system, and Vancouver, at $100.25 for a one-zone Translink pass, charge.
And it would, hopefully, convince more people to become monthly pass-holders, which I bet would increase off-peak evening and weekend ridership. For me, there’s a psychological effect that comes when I’ve bought a pass — I figure that I’ve already paid for it, so I might as well opt to use it instead of driving or taking a cab.
What about the cost? While a $100 monthly pass would offer a big benefit to riders, rough calculations suggest it wouldn’t necessarily represent a huge loss to TTC revenue.
According to Leary’s latest report to the TTC board, the agency sold 51,409 passes in August. All those were not sold at the full adult price of $156, but let’s assume they were for this rough estimate. At full price, that represents hypothetical revenue of $8 million. Cut the price to $100 and the hypothetical revenue drops to $5.1 million. The TTC, an agency with a $2.1 billion annual budget, would need to find somewhere in the ballpark of $3 million a month to subsidize the difference at August’s sales levels. It’s doable.
And maybe not even necessary. Perhaps the move could actually increase the TTC’s overall revenue, if a price cut led to a lot more pass-holders. I’m optimistic enough to think that it could, especially if service levels are quickly adjusted to match increased demand. Rising gas prices and punishing congestion are going to make the prospect of driving in this city increasingly unappealing. I believe Toronto can still be a transit city.
But to get there more quickly, let’s try making transit a bargain.