Inflation is on its way up. Does that matter any more?
Inflation is rising. For most Canadians that’s a bad thing. It means the cost of living is going up.
For the experts who oversee the economy, however, it is akin to a non-event. Inflation used to be considered important. Now it’s seen as just one of those things.
On the face of it, the hike in inflation sounds dramatic. In September, consumer prices rose by 4.4 per cent. It cost a lot more to drive a car, and considerably more to eat.
In the days before COVID, this would have been noteworthy. Now, not so much.
In large part, that’s because before COVID, we would have expected the authorities to respond in some measure. In the old days, when inflation exceeded the Bank of Canada’s target zone — as it did last month — we would have expected the central bank to hike interest rates in an effort to slow the economy down.
But central banks in the U.S., Europe and Canada don’t fixate on inflation any more. In fact, they view moderate inflation as a necessary evil in their efforts to keep the world economy going.
So don’t expect the Bank of Canada to respond to this week’s inflation news by tweaking interest rates. In fact, don’t expect the central bank to respond much at all.
As for the federal government, it remains fixated on the economic dangers posed by the pandemic.
Hence its decision, announced Thursday, to extend and refocus various support programs aimed at compensating those hurt economically by COVID.
In terms of economic policy, this is probably the best approach. The income losses associated with COVID pose a far greater danger to the economy than inflation.
Politically, however, inflation remains a real problem for the government. Rising prices affect everyone. No one is exempt.
Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives understand this and are slamming the government for doing too little to fight inflation.
In fact, some Conservatives blame the government’s COVID policies for actively fuelling inflation.
There is some truth to this charge. Under the label of quantitative easing, the Bank of Canada has, in effect, been printing money in an effort to get the economy going again.
By definition, this is mildly inflationary. But it’s not the real cause of the latest hike in Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index.
More important is the COVID-related breakdown in international commerce. Goods are ordered but never delivered.
Instead, they are held up in ports around the world, from Vancouver to Los Angeles to Vietnam.
Throughout they wait. They wait to be unloaded. They wait to be shipped by truck and rail to their final destinations. They wait again while they are readied for sale.
Every wait incurs another cost. Added to this are the common sharp practices of business. Some manufacturers reduce the weight or volume of commodities put up for sale, without reducing posted prices. For example, a cookie manufacturer who sold eight in a $2 bag might switch to seven per $2 bag — effectively a price hike.
All of this is inflationary. None of this is popular.
But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals remain blasé. They calculate that in the end, voters will reward them for keeping the economy alive — even if prices keep going up.