Price was too high to gamble on Matz
There are at least a few free agents who will use their 2021 season in a Blue Jays uniform as a springboard to a big payday. In the wee hours of Wednesday morning, lefty Steven Matz became the first one to cash in.
Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and MVP candidate Marcus Semien are the most coveted players the Jays have on the open market. However, in a sign of just how competitive the current landscape is, Matz attracted plenty of attention too.
Reports indicate Matz was weighing as many as eight offers before he settled on a four-year deal with the Cardinals worth a guaranteed $44 million. The Jays were interested until the end, and although the terms of their offer remain unknown it’s rather obvious they decided the deal was a bit too rich.
The other finalist for Matz appeared to be the New York Mets. Matz initially expressed an interest in returning to his hometown team, which left Mets owner Steven Cohen incensed when he decided to sign with St. Louis instead. Cohen’s beef appears to stem from the fact that Matz’s agent approached the Mets about a deal, not the other way around.
“I’m not happy this morning,” Cohen tweeted Wednesday, less than a year after the Mets tossed Matz aside in a deal with the Jays for a package of low-level prospects. “I’ve never seen such unprofessional behaviour exhibited by a player’s agent. I guess words and promises don’t matter.”
From a Jays perspective, there was far less drama. While the club remained part of the bidding process, Matz’s departure seemed probable after the Jays declined to extend a qualifying offer and the sides were unable to reach a multiyear agreement before free agency.
There were people inside the organization who felt the 30-year-old has even more upside than he displayed in a career year with a 3.82 ERA across 150-plus innings, but the lack of consensus likely played a
role in not willing to offer four seasons.
That’s understandable, because while Matz was effective for the Jays during the second half of 2021 he hasn’t displayed that consistency throughout his career. This is a guy who usually is either really good or really bad. The Jays saw both versions, and offering that much term to a wild card seems excessive.
Keep in mind, it wasn’t long ago that Matz was on the verge of losing his job.
Throughout the bulk of June and part of July, Ross Stripling was putting up better numbers and it was only after he got hurt in early August that Matz solidified his role.
Over his final 14 starts, Matz went 7-3 with a 2.91 ERA while striking out 62 batters across 74 1⁄3 innings. By the end of the year, he was pitching so well that had the Jays made the post-season he arguably would have been the safer pick over highpriced Hyun-Jin Ryu as the No. 4 starter.
Before that second-half run, though, Matz was mediocre at best.
Following a hot start, the product of Stony Brook, N.Y. went 3-4 with a 5.77 ERA in 11 starts from late April into early July. For a team that was struggling to get quality innings, he was anything but a saviour. Inconsistency is acceptable for a fourth or fifth starter on a one-year deal; it’s far more concerning for a guy on a long-term contract.
Matz’s departure represents another swing and a miss for the Jays, but one the organization can afford. After the failed pursuits of Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander, it’s apparent the front office is casting a wide net. As is typical with this team, it comes up with a defined number for dollars and years, and if their intended target blows past that the club moves onto something else.
Missing on Matz doesn’t come with the same repercussions as guys at the higher end of the market. The Jays need a reliable backend piece to eat up innings, but the priority is raising the ceiling of the starters by bringing in another front to-mid-tier are to go alongside José Berríos, Alek Manoah and Ryu.
Ray could still be that missing link even though he’s not expected to sign before the collective agreement expires on Dec. 2. Free-agent righty Kevin Gausman, who has been linked to the Jays multiple times over the last several years, should be an option too.
Elsewhere, the Oakland A’s, Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds are among those shopping arms.
To round out the rotation, the Jays have back-up options.
Stripling, Thomas Hatch, Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton and Nate Pearson will be competing for jobs next spring. In an ideal world, they would open the year as insurance for an already competent starting five. In a worst-case scenario, one of those five heads to Dunedin with a realistic shot of winning a starting gig.
Matz exceeded expectations in 2021. He joined the Jays in January on a $5.2-million salary as someone who was a non-tender candidate just a few weeks prior. By mid-season his job was in jeopardy, and now he has $44 million guaranteed coming his way.
The Jays used him to make a run at a wild-card spot, he used them to get paid. Win-win for both sides.
There are players the Jays will miss on this off-season who are worth getting upset about. Matz isn’t one of them. He performed well during his brief tenure here and his contract wasn’t unreasonable, but the Jays can, and should, do better. Save the criticism for the Jays miss out on a bigger piece. Taking a pass on four years of Matz makes all the sense in the world.