Kim’s decade in power is a game-changer
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been largely absent from the global limelight during the pandemic, yet his domestic power and ability to create trouble abroad appear stronger than ever.
In his 2022 new year address, he highlighted what he called the unstable military environment Pyongyang still faces. And he called for the country’s defences to “be further powerfully propelled without a moment’s notice.”
Kim’s priority focus on national security, despite the economic calamity facing his country, highlights how he has managed to achieve what could be a potential gamechanger for international relations in the 2020s. That is, the significant advance in his nation’s nuclear armed ballistic missile forces.
The massive destructive capability that Kim now has at his disposal has shifted the U.S. and wider Western calculus toward the regime. For the new weaponry could provide Kim with tremendous leverage to extract concessions in future disputes, while also making foreign-instigated regime change much more difficult.
Another notable Kim achievement emerging since 2019 is that of a key international player, as shown by outsmarting Donald Trump in their three meetings. With little in the way of concessions to the then-U.S. president, despite Trump claiming the “nuclear threat from North Korea is over,” Kim became the first North Korean leader to meet with a sitting White House incumbent and was able to spin that in domestic propaganda as the U.S. imperialists capitulating to his growing political power.
Kim also benefits from the likelihood that, with the downturn in U.S.-China relations, he will benefit from stronger support from Beijing, which could be key to propping up his regime if times get especially tough.
These developments, along with the way he ruthlessly consolidated domestic power by executing his father’s most trusted adviser (his uncle to boot) plus his half-brother and rival claimant to power, show this is a man whose determination shouldn’t be underestimated. And this leaves a big policy headache for U.S. President Joe Biden and his allies in the region, including South Korea President Moon Jae-in, as they grapple with how to mitigate the growing nuclear danger posed by Pyongyang.
This issue dominated Biden’s first face-to-face meeting at the White House with Moon, whose terms as South Korean president ends in May 2022. The fundamental challenge facing Washington is that missile tests have shown Pyongyang is close to developing a nuclear warhead that cannot only strike Asia, but also has the longer-range capability of hitting the U.S. homeland.
The Biden team’s 2021 Korean policy review called for a focus on practical steps to reduce tensions, while maintaining the goal of removing the North’s nuclear weapons.
Yet, Moon wants to move faster, and broaden the range of initiatives with the North, including several inter-Korean projects, such as reconnecting railroads and roads.
The challenge for Moon is that, with less than six months left in power, his time frames for action are not aligned with Biden, who is playing a longer game. Moreover, with the Washington-Pyongyang mood music turning almost uniformly negative, it’s unclear whether anything in the short-term can turn it around given that Kim insists it is the United States that must first make more concessions before he re-engages.
One reason why Pyongyang will not move far or fast in its positioning, is that Kim emerged as the bigger beneficiary of the engagement process with Trump. The North Korean leader made few concessions, yet Trump called off joint military exercises between U.S. and South Korean forces; and held out the prospect of an easing of sanctions if Pyongyang did “something meaningful” on denuclearization.
It is this diplomatic mess that Trump left for Biden to navigate. While the tensions on the peninsula are not as heated as 2017, when conflict appeared realistic, the situation is fragile and key risks remain that could yet tip the peninsula into crisis again as soon as 2022.