Vax tax easier to promise than to collect
MONTREAL In his three years as Quebec’s premier, François Legault has never shied away from controversial initiatives.
To wit: Bill 21, the law that imposes a secular dress code on some of the province’s public servants; a bid to unilaterally enshrine the concept of the Quebec nation in the Constitution; and a liberal use of the notwithstanding clause to circumvent the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
In each case, Legault has stared down opposition critics and been rewarded for his government’s efforts with a stellar performance in the polls on voting intentions.
Given that, it is little wonder that the premier felt emboldened this week to go where no other provincial government leader had dared to tread by declaring his intention to impose a tax on those who continue to resist calls to get vaccinated against COVID-19.
For that, Legault reaped some immediate political dividends.
The announcement came on a day when the premier would otherwise have had to account for the resignation of the province’s chief medical officer. Attention instantly shifted away from his government’s hitand-miss management of the ongoing Omicron-driven phase of the pandemic.
It offered a bone of sorts to the many vaccinated Quebecers, who have grown impatient with the unvaccinated minority. And the prospect of taking a hit in their pocketbooks almost certainly brought some vaccine-reluctant people to belatedly line up for a first dose.
But while talk of a health tax paid off, walking that talk could come at a price to the CAQ over the next pre-election months.
Since the start of the pandemic, it had seemed that Legault could do no wrong. Each of the restrictions his government put in place over the first waves of COVID-19 shored up its popularity.
The advent of the Omicron variant has upended that winning equation.
The decision last month to reinstate a curfew landed with a thud in public opinion. (It will be lifted as of Monday.) Questions about the rationale of the restrictions have become more pointed.
A Mainstreet poll published this week — before the proposed health tax was squarely in the picture — found that the latest round of restrictions has, for the first time since the pandemic began, taken a toll on CAQ support.
Some of that support has leaked to the province’s fledgling Conservative party. When it comes to lockdowns and vaccine mandates, the latter is closer to Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party than to the federal Conservatives.
The securalism law and the language bill are most strongly opposed by members of constituencies that do not support the CAQ. By contrast, a number of the party’s supporters are in the sights of Legault’s health contribution. On the October provincial ballot, the provincial Conservative party could offer them a place from which to vent their anger at the government.
Legault may have hoped that pulling the rabbit of a health tax out of his hat would work magic on the public mood. Early indications suggest the announcement failed to do the trick.
Editorial reactions essentially ranged from skepticism as to the merits or the feasibility of such a measure to downright opposition to its punitive spirit.
In the National Assembly, none of the opposition parties offered support.
At the federal level, the Bloc Québécois reserved comment on the substance of the announcement, stating that it was not its place to wade into a debate over made-in-Quebec policy.
Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole set aside his calls for provincial autonomy long enough to come out against Legault’s plan, in no small part to avoid further public caucus divisions.
In other provincial capitals, premiers such as Ontario’s Doug Ford were prompt to shut down the notion that their governments might follow suit.
On Thursday, Legault said he planned to introduce a bill to implement the measure when the National Assembly reconvenes next month. It will be greeted by a barrage of opposition criticism.
Between now and then, he will have to reconcile his stated goal of growing the ranks of the vaccinated and diminishing the burden the unvaccinated put on the health-care system with the feasibility of collecting a tax anytime soon.
He has ruled out exacting a user’s fee for medical services from the unvaccinated. That would be a direct breach of the Canada Health Act.
Unless Legault plans to have the police comb the province’s health records, the better to hunt down the unvaccinated, that leaves the income tax route. It is hard to see how a change along the lines the premier has in mind could come into effect for this tax season.
But a measure that hits pocketbooks only in 18 to 20 months is unlikely to act as much of an incentive to get vaccinated or to offer relief to the health-care system.
No one will be surprised if Legault ends up puncturing the trial balloon of a health tax on the unvaccinated before it becomes clear that it is too poorly designed to fly.
Legault may have hoped that pulling the rabbit of a health tax out of his hat would work magic on the public mood. Early indications suggest the announcement failed to do the trick