In Ontario, the race for second might be the most interesting
Post-Omicron, pre-election, one question will preoccupy the province: Can anyone defeat Doug Ford? Who will have the most persuasive policies? Does it even matter, given that Ford’s Tories won the last election without a detailed platform?
What’s the path to victory? And how’s it working so far?
In the 19 weeks leading up to the June 2 vote, you will read countless predictions and assumptions, based on individual intuitions and extrapolations, because everyone has an opinion about the premier and his prospects. The campaign trail is not linear, so the only certainty is uncertainty.
No one knows who will be premier in the aftermath. But if people are deeply divided, the key question is where the anti-Ford vote goes — who will be the most plausible and electable dragon slayer?
Voters looking for a change may be more interested in winnability than personality or policy. In the 2015 federal election, rival opposition parties duelled hard to see who would be seen by voters as the best vehicle to defeat thenPM Stephen Harper.
What stands out in the polls to date is how remarkably resilient Ford’s Progressive Conservatives remain after nearly four turbulent years in power. The governing party is typically in the doldrums before every election, yet the Tories have maintained a significant lead in the polls almost without letup, even in the run-up to the campaign.
But the one unanswered question is whether they have a big enough lead to retain a majority government on voting day, or whether they slide into minority territory. In which case all bets are off.
The non-partisan “survey of surveys” by 338Canada projects the PCs winning 36 per cent of the popular vote and 64 of the legislature’s 124 seats, eking out a slim majority. It also shows the major opposition parties in a dead heat, with the NDP and Liberals at 27 per cent each in the popular vote, and virtually tied in seats (30 and 29 respectively), with the Greens holding on to their one riding.
The respected online website calculates the odds of the Tories coming out on top at 99 per cent. But the likelihood of winning a majority is projected at 59 per cent — not exactly a sure thing.
Opposition parties usually like to keep their options open. But NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and the Liberals’ Steven Del Duca both told me last summer, in their first public comments and commitments on this issue, that they would defeat a Ford minority government and work together to replace it.
What that would look like is impossible to see in advance, but it adds suspense to the outcome — not least because whichever party finishes second could end up on top by default in a minority scenario. That uncertainty could energize wavering PC supporters to shore up a Ford majority, but it could also motivate anti-Ford voters to make their ballots count.
All the more reason to know who is best placed to defeat the Tories, who captured 76 of the legislature’s 124 seats in the last election. Finishing second, the NDP formed the official opposition with 40 seats, and the Liberals fell to a distant third (losing official party status) with seven, while the Greens’ Mike Schreiner won the party’s first-ever seat.
Starting from so far back, the Liberals have a lot of seats to win back, while the NDP has a significant head start. But the polls tell a different story — with little certainty, only volatility as the two parties fight for second place — and keep trading places.
A new poll released this week by EKOS shows the Tories at 35 per cent, the NDP at 27 and the Liberals at 26 per cent, broadly reflective of the recent trend line. An Innovative Research poll last week raised eyebrows by showing the Liberals jumping into the lead with 36 per cent, followed closely by the Tories at 35 per cent and the NDP far behind at 22 per cent (it did not, however, include the leaders’ names, just the party brands).
The question of who’s on top — the Tories — has been overshadowed by who’s on second. We don’t have a clear answer.
As for the broader question of what the opposition parties stand for, and how they differ from the governing party and each other? Stay tuned for more columns on content, but don’t be surprised if the horse race overshadows the platforms in much of the media coverage.
Remember the big issues in the 2018 campaign? Buck-a-beer faded faster than a head of foam, a promised 12-percent cut to “high hydro prices” is long forgotten, firing the “six-million-dollar man” at Hydro One cost the province millions more, killing the carbon tax only gave us a federal carbon levy, and the gas plants “boondoggle” is a closed book.
All those slogans turned out to be diversions, wedges and footnotes. In truth, the last campaign turned on the strength of Ford’s supposed populism and the plummeting popularity of Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal incumbents.
What will be the issues that count in the 2022 campaign? Will politicians offer persuasive answers on managing COVID, economic recovery and poverty, hospital capacity, ailing nursing homes, environmental stewardship, the housing crunch, highway controversies and transit challenges?
Ontario voters usually wait until the last minute to focus on an election, and people are more preoccupied by the pandemic than politics of late. Whatever your priority — winnability or policy, or both — it’s time to start talking and thinking about the possibilities.
I’ll be hosting Ontario’s three opposition leaders — the NDP’s Horwath, the Liberals’ Del Duca and the Greens’ Schreiner — at a pre-election Ryerson Democracy Forum on Tuesday, Jan. 25 via Zoom (open to the public and registration is free but required in advance). Let’s see how they answer your questions.