DIVIDED WE SPRAWL
New data shows major growth in downtown core and GTA’s outer suburbs, but not much in between
Downtown Toronto’s population has soared in the last five years — despite a pandemic-era slump — and the outskirts of the GTA are booming. New data shows the spaces between, however, haven’t kept pace.
Encircling Toronto like a halo, areas such as Milton, New Tecumseth and East Gwillimbury were among the fastest-growing municipalities in the country (among those with populations over 5,000) between 2016 and 2021, new Statistics Canada data shows, with population increases of 20.7 per cent, 28.3 per cent and 44.4 per cent respectively. East Gwillimbury took the top spot nationwide.
Among Toronto’s distant suburbs, which include any part of the census metropolitan area at least 30 minutes’ drive from the city core, StatCan found populations grew by 9.4 per cent. It’s a surge dwarfed only by the continued boom
downtown, which saw a five-year population jump of 16.1 per cent, despite growth slumping to 0.4 per cent between July 2020 and 2021.
It’s a different story in the middle. In the areas located less than 10 minutes’ drive from downtown, StatCan found the five-year increase to be just 1.4 per cent. Within 20 minutes’ drive of the core, populations grew by 1.7 per cent. And in what are known as the intermediate suburbs, which include parts of Mississauga and Markham within 30 minutes’ drive, the change was 0.4 per cent.
“The differences are striking,” said Karen Chapple, director of the University of Toronto’s School of Cities.
She cautioned the peculiarities of a pandemic census could have an impact on the data — offering, as an example, households hunkering down in a secondary property such as a cottage during COVID-19, or students who might normally be on a school campus staying at home.
But overall, she and other experts believe that Wednesday’s data illustrates a continuation of long-standing trends — from the pursuit of affordable homes pulling more households further away from Toronto, to new housing developments clustering in the city’s dense downtown.
“We haven’t really done a great job of increasing housing affordability and availability in those areas near downtown, where people would like to live but can’t afford to buy,” Chapple said. She sees the booms in further suburbs as indicative of a “drive-until-you-qualify” approach.
“People are moving out there because that’s where you can find more affordable housing — because the core is in a housing crisis. That’s ongoing … that’s the decade-long trend.”
David Hulchanski, a housing expert with U of T, isn’t surprised by the data, saying it’s a trend that’s emanated outward for half a century.
While parts of suburban Toronto such as Etobicoke and North York have seen slower growth in the last five years, those areas grew rapidly in the 1950s, he said. In the ’60s, that growth widened out to Peel and York Region.
“The outer suburbs have always offered newer and larger housing options at a lower price, in exchange for distance from the central area,” Hulchanski wrote in an email, noting that for some households, securing newer housing — in newer suburbs — was a priority.
He suggested that in-between areas may be less attractive to developers, as they offer neither the lure of living in a major hub that comes from building downtown condo towers, nor the promise of extra space in a farther suburb.
“If transit was dramatically improved in the other areas, this would make a difference. But that requires both investment and urban planning.”
While suburbs such as Oakville, Brampton and Pickering have seen sizable population hikes in the last five years — 10.3 per cent, 10.6 per cent and 8.1 per cent respectively — Mississauga stands out as an anomaly, with Statistics Canada reporting a population drop of 0.5 per cent between 2016 and 2021.
Diana Petramala, senior economist for Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, noted Mississauga had historically been a landing spot for new immigrants. But she believes the suburb has become increasingly inaccessible to younger people, with millennial-aged households looking to other areas such as Durham or Simcoe if they want to buy a home.
As those areas grow, both Chapple and Petramala believe transportation is a major question.
“You’re going to see a lot more traffic if people start going back to the office, if the jobs don’t follow the population growth,” Petramala said — while noting that in some cases, transit expansions may have aided surging populations by making suburban areas more accessible.
“The concern would be if this trend continues, and there becomes a sort of ring of subcentres around the (Toronto area), are we going to have to do a massive expansion of the highway system?” Chapple asked, noting that came with both a financial and environmental cost.
While the new data shows that three-quarters of the growth in recent years in Toronto’s census metropolitan area — which stretches as far as Lake Simcoe, Burlington and Clarington — was in the “distant” suburbs, the data also shows a country that’s becoming increasingly urban, with the downtown areas of major cities growing faster than before.
While urban centres Canadawide saw a 6.1 per cent population increase overall between 2016 and 2021, the new data shows that growth in their downtown areas was far higher, at 10.9 per cent.
It’s a marked shift, the agency noted, from the last census — which found downtown populations growing more slowly than overall metropolitan areas.
Statistics Canada believes the trend is attributable to a number of
While urban centres Canada-wide saw a 6.1 per cent population increase overall between 2016 and 2021, data shows that growth in their downtown areas was far higher, at 10.9 per cent
factors, from city efforts to boost density to the continued pull of living near jobs.
Petramala believes the concentration of rental housing is also a factor, with more households renting for longer, as Hulchanski and Chapple pointed to the numerous condos rising in the core.
“That’s where the new housing has gone,” Petramala said, noting it was more difficult to put density into other parts of the city, such as its “yellowbelt” neighbourhoods — a term for the bulk of Toronto’s residential areas that are zoned for detached and semi-detached homes.
But overall, Chapple sees the growth in downtown areas as cause for excitement.
“We’ve shown that if we can increase housing supply, then we can bring people back.”