A trade disaster in the making
WASHINGTON The U.S. is obsessed with security. Canada is obsessed with trade.
That’s an axiom of international relations I heard first from Lindsay Rodman, an American national security expert, and since then from people whose jobs involve crossborder relations. Its truth often proves to be a kind of skeleton key for understanding how the two countries approach various issues.
It came to mind as the so-called “Freedom Convoy” turned into an international spectacle, in which Canada’s ability to demonstrate it can provide security may be key to its trade future. As this has become clearer, Canadian federal and provincial officials seem to have snapped into crackdown mode.
Extremism expert Caroline Orr Bueno has expressed skepticism that any copycat convoy would be able to shut down a major U.S. city in the same way — and for as long — as the blockade in Ottawa has. Her expectation was that U.S. police would more aggressively quash any attempt.
I’d observe in addition that most U.S. cities simply have a more elaborate policing apparatus to do so — particularly the capital city. I’ve seen people remark online that Ottawa is a larger city than Washington. That may be technically true, but the U.S. capital’s metropolitan area is many times larger, and the police population is as well. The District of Columbia’s municipal police force has more than 50 per cent more officers than Ottawa’s does, for starters; D.C. is also protected by a Capitol police force that’s twice as large as the Ottawa police service, a uniformed Secret Service force that is also larger than the Ottawa force, and a couple of hundred National Parks police officers. There are also 3,400 D.C. National Guard members who can be (and recently have been) called in to respond to threats. Plus there’s the whole federal Department of Homeland Security.
Clearly, Ottawa can also draw on the Ontario Provincial Police, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and, in exceptional circumstances, the Canadian Armed Forces. But the standing force in D.C. dwarfs the one in Ottawa, which may be a signal of how the two capitals approach security generally.
Certainly, watching the Ottawa police avoid a confrontation over a period of weeks — and watching Ottawa police Chief Peter Sloly’s public pleas for military or other support go unheeded — you could argue that Canada’s lower prioritization of security has allowed the occupation to dig in the way it has.
But now that the blockades have moved to choke off key border crossings, Canada’s priority of trade is threatened. This is true in an immediate sense, in that manufacturing plants are downing tools as supplies are blocked. But it’s also true, and potentially more damaging, in the long term if this isn’t quickly resolved.
You may remember that the Canadian government was in fivealarm-fire mode late last year over proposed electric vehicle subsidies proposed by President Joe Biden that would only apply to U.S.-manufactured cars. Every Canadian cabinet member and diplomat was seized by the issue. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau personally pleaded Canada’s case in Washington.
Since then, there hasn’t been much to report: Biden’s economic package that included the measure was shelved by Sen. Joe Manchin, and the Biden administration has a bunch of other pressing issues on its legislative calendar to deal with. Maybe the electric vehicle idea will come back in some form, maybe not. Canadians have gone quiet about the issue, perhaps because it’s no longer on the front burner and they don’t want to be the ones to put it back there.
But the convoy risks doing just that, or at least reviving the sentiment behind the issue.
Back in December, Canada’s officials emphasized the scope of the “integrated supply chain” that powers the North American auto industry and other industries. Their point has been made vividly by the immediate economic impacts of just a few days’ blockage at one key border crossing.
But the illustration of their point, in this case, may not be demonstrating the value they hoped to emphasize.
“We are all awaiting Prime Minister Trudeau’s way forward,” Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin wrote on Twitter after a plant in her district cancelled shifts. “The one thing that couldn’t be more clear is that we have to bring American manufacturing back home to states like Michigan.”
Slotkin doesn’t need an excuse to bang the made-in-America drum, but a border blockade certainly makes the rhetorical beat ring louder. And while Biden hasn’t made any recent protectionist gestures, the White House began pressing for a swift resolution to the border blockade when its economic implications emerged.
Flavio Volpe, head of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association and one of the lead Canadian industry advocates, summed it up this way. “The question isn’t whether there is a good infrastructure and great supply on this side of the border,” he told Global News. “It’s whether law enforcement on this side of the border takes laws that are on the books as seriously as the ones on the other side.” If you want to live by supply chains, as trade-obsessed Canada does, you have to provide the security to keep them open.
The clarity of the stakes here — the trade stakes in particular — are surely a big part of what suddenly snapped Premier Doug Ford into action Friday, when he declared a state of emergency and threatened severe consequences for protesters who don’t stop blocking infrastructure and supply lines.
After they met last year in Washington, Biden and Trudeau said they shared a commitment to “our collective security and prosperity.” Canada may generally be more focused on the latter. But suddenly it’s clear that providing it depends on showing it can supply the former.